Uncertain Futures: The Changing Global Context of the European Arctic

The report details a workshop in Pajala, Sweden, where local stakeholders and researchers co-created four future narratives for the region based on global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Participants identified climate change, national-local power relations, and international security as primary drivers of change. The resulting narratives explore a range of futures, from a sustainable 'Green Road' focused on circular economies and bio-production to a 'Rocky Road' characterized by resurgent nationalism and state withdrawal from municipal welfare. The study emphasizes the interconnection between local Arctic conditions—such as mining and reindeer herding—and global trends in migration, resource demand, and climate change.

• Workshop participants identified 'Climate change' as the most important driver of future change for the Pajala region, followed by 'Power relations national-local' and 'International security'.
• The 'Sustainability: Taking the Green Road' narrative envisions a future where the Arctic warms by only 2ºC and Pajala's economy shifts toward circularity, with forestry serving as a primary industry for both bio-production and carbon sequestration.
• In the 'Fossil-fuelled Development: The Highway' scenario, rapid Arctic resource extraction is driven by global demand, leading to increased mining jobs but also causing pollution and the decline of traditional reindeer herding as a livelihood.
• The 'Inequality – A Road Divided' narrative suggests that Pajala may become a destination for both climate/conflict refugees and a global wealthy elite, creating social tensions between low-income households and a non-settling rich elite.
• The 'Regional Rivalry: A Rocky Road' scenario describes a future of resurgent nationalism where the Swedish state withdraws from public sector areas, forcing municipalities to rely on local tax bases for welfare functions amidst a 'financial downward spiral'.
• Local stakeholders, specifically the Muonio Sami community, highlighted that mining activities like the Kaunisvaara mine threaten traditional reindeer herding by destroying grazing land and affecting groundwater levels.
• The report concludes that 'soft' capacities, including entrepreneurship and cultural values that favor diversity, are essential for achieving the more optimistic future scenarios.

APA

Nilsson, A. E., Carlsen, H., & van der Watt, L.-M. (2015). Uncertain Futures: The Changing Global Context of the European Arctic. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/NEW/sei-wp-2015-uncertain-futures-nilssonv2.pdf

Chicago

Nilsson, Annika E., Henrik Carlsen, and Lize-Marié van der Watt. Uncertain Futures: The Changing Global Context of the European Arctic. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2015. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/NEW/sei-wp-2015-uncertain-futures-nilssonv2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Nilsson |first1=Annika E. |last2=Carlsen |first2=Henrik |last3=van der Watt |first3=Lize-Marié |title=Uncertain Futures: The Changing Global Context of the European Arctic |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=October 2015 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/NEW/sei-wp-2015-uncertain-futures-nilssonv2.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{nilsson2015uncertain, author = {Nilsson, Annika E. and Carlsen, Henrik and van der Watt, Lize-Marié}, title = {{Uncertain Futures: The Changing Global Context of the European Arctic}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2015}, month = oct, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/NEW/sei-wp-2015-uncertain-futures-nilssonv2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }