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This policy brief by the NewClimate Institute presents national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets for 2030 and 2050 aligned with the Paris Agreement's temperature goals. It compares two distinct methodologies for distributing these targets: fairness-based approaches, derived from Climate Action Tracker evaluations, and cost-effectiveness approaches, based on marginal abatement cost curves.

This document compares over 40 studies on regional GHG reduction targets based on various effort-sharing approaches. It finds that targets vary significantly by approach and region; for a 450 ppm CO2e stabilization level by 2030, OECD 1990 allowances would be roughly half of 2010 levels, while other regions like Asia and Latin America would see different relative reductions. The author notes that current literature covers only a small fraction of possible allocation approaches and calls for more in-depth modelling.