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This policy brief, published by the Institute for Security Studies in 2017, analyzes Ethiopia's development trajectory toward 2030. Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system, the document evaluates the impact of various sectoral interventions—specifically in agriculture, education, health, and governance—on poverty, GDP per capita, and the Human Development Index (HDI). It argues that while Ethiopia has seen rapid growth and improvements in basic services since 1991, it still faces significant challenges in agricultural productivity, primary school completion, and domestic revenue mobilization. The brief recommends an 'Integrated Development Push' to accelerate the country's transition to lower-middle-income status.