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This research paper examines how assumptions regarding income growth in low-income countries within climate-economics models affect global emissions reduction goals, arguing that underestimating the development potential of the poorest nations leads to weaker mitigation targets.

This briefing describes the Climate and Regional Economics of Development (CRED) model developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute. The model argues that achieving human welfare requires keeping cumulative twenty-first century CO2 emissions below 2,000 Gt to maintain a high probability of limiting global temperature increases to below 2°C, contrasting with conventional models like DICE that suggest slower reductions.