DISCUSSION BRIEF

This briefing describes the Climate and Regional Economics of Development (CRED) model developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute. The model argues that achieving human welfare requires keeping cumulative twenty-first century CO2 emissions below 2,000 Gt to maintain a high probability of limiting global temperature increases to below 2°C, contrasting with conventional models like DICE that suggest slower reductions.

• To avoid dangerous climate impacts and maintain a high probability of keeping temperature increases below 2°C, cumulative CO2 emissions for the twenty-first century must be limited to 2,000 Gt. By 2010, more than 300 Gt, or 15% of this total, had already been emitted.
• Business-as-usual emissions are projected to reach 7,800 Gt over the century, which would result in a less than one in 10,000 chance of keeping temperatures below 2.0°C and a 50% chance that temperatures will increase by more than 3.7°C by the end of the century. Closing this gap requires eliminating 5,800 Gt of emissions.
• The CRED model identifies three primary adjustments to conventional climate-economics models to justify immediate, steep emission reductions: incorporating updated science on economic damages ('Reason'), increasing the value placed on future generations via the discount rate ('Empathy'), and enabling rich countries to invest in emissions and poverty reduction in poorer nations ('Fair play').
• The CRED Optimal scenario, which combines reason, empathy, and fair play, results in a better than four out of five chance (83%) of keeping temperature increases below 2°C. This scenario facilitates rapid growth in low-income regions while high-income regions grow at a slower, gradual pace.
• The document critiques 'overshoot' scenarios, stating they are non-viable because global average temperatures do not decline easily once a peak is reached; research suggests temperatures may not fall for several centuries even if CO2 concentrations are substantially lowered.

APA

Stanton, E. A., Ackerman, F., & Bueno, R. (2012). DISCUSSION BRIEF. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-DiscussionBrief-Stanton-ReasonEmpathyAndFairPlay-2012.pdf

Chicago

Stanton, Elizabeth A., Frank Ackerman, and Ramón Bueno. DISCUSSION BRIEF. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2012. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-DiscussionBrief-Stanton-ReasonEmpathyAndFairPlay-2012.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Stanton |first1=Elizabeth A. |last2=Ackerman |first2=Frank |last3=Bueno |first3=Ramón |title=DISCUSSION BRIEF |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=2012 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-DiscussionBrief-Stanton-ReasonEmpathyAndFairPlay-2012.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stanton2012discussion, author = {Stanton, Elizabeth A. and Ackerman, Frank and Bueno, Ramón}, title = {{DISCUSSION BRIEF}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2012}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-DiscussionBrief-Stanton-ReasonEmpathyAndFairPlay-2012.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }