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The global iron and steel industry faces a 'coal lock-in crisis' as blast furnace (BF) capacity continues to expand despite decarbonization targets. While electric arc furnace (EAF) and direct reduced iron (DRI) capacities are growing, the transition is slowed by massive legacy assets in China and aggressive new coal-based developments in India. Green hydrogen remains a critical but underutilized bottleneck, with only 2% of operating DRI capacity using it as a primary reductant. The report highlights a significant gap between announced net-zero goals and actual industrial investment, particularly regarding the relining of existing blast furnaces.

The report finds that while electric arc furnace (EAF) capacity is growing, the global steel industry is not on track for 2030 net-zero goals due to continued investment in coal-based blast furnaces, particularly in India and China. India has emerged as the largest developer of steel capacity, though most of its plans remain in the announcement stage and are heavily carbon-intensive. The report also highlights the strategic importance of iron ore producers like Australia and Brazil in enabling the transition to direct reduced iron (DRI) production.