{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["technology trend analysis"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'technology trend analysis' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":2,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=technology+trend+analysis","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"gem-000157","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/gem-000157","title":"Pedal to the Metal 2026","publisher":{"name":"Global Energy Monitor","organization":"global-energy-monitor"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2026-05","source_url":"https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/2026-05/Pedal%20to%20the%20Metal%202026.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The global iron and steel industry faces a 'coal lock-in crisis' as blast furnace (BF) capacity continues to expand despite decarbonization targets. While electric arc furnace (EAF) and direct reduced iron (DRI) capacities are growing, the transition is slowed by massive legacy assets in China and aggressive new coal-based developments in India. Green hydrogen remains a critical but underutilized bottleneck, with only 2% of operating DRI capacity using it as a primary reductant. The report highlights a significant gap between announced net-zero goals and actual industrial investment, particularly regarding the relining of existing blast furnaces.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000157#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Global blast furnace (BF) capacity is projected to increase despite decarbonization goals, with 319 mtpa under development. Net additions are projected at 73 mtpa by 2030 and 88 mtpa by 2035.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000157#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Electric arc furnace (EAF) capacity is increasing its share of the global operating fleet, rising from 31% in 2022 to 34% (727 mtpa) in 2026. EAFs now represent 50% of all developing steel capacity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000157#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"India is the primary driver of new coal-based capacity, developing over 60% of upcoming BF-BOF capacity globally. Approximately 93% of India's developing ironmaking capacity will use coal-based technology, though only 5% has broken ground.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000157#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"China's transition is constrained by its massive legacy fleet; 94% of its blast furnace capacity has no retirement plan. While China's EAF share of developing capacity (39%) is higher than its existing share (17%), the overall impact is limited by the scale of its operating fleet.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000157#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Direct reduced iron (DRI) capacity is expanding rapidly and could grow by 141% if all developments proceed, reaching 296 mtpa by 2035. However, 83% of operating DRIs with known reductants still use gas and 17% use coal.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000157#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Green hydrogen is a major bottleneck for decarbonization; only 2% (4 mtpa) of operating DRI capacity uses green hydrogen as a primary reductant, although 19% of planned capacity with a known reductant intends to use hydrogen upon startup.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000157#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The relining of existing blast furnaces is a significant 'lock-in' signal, with 80 mtpa of capacity having planned or ongoing relining, indicating an intention to operate these coal-based units long-term.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000157#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Induction furnaces (IFs) may have higher emissions profiles than EAFs because they rely more heavily on sponge iron from coal-based rotary kilns; IF production uses 73% sponge iron compared to 21% for EAFs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000157#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The United States has the world's oldest blast furnace fleet, with an average age of 80 years in 2026. Recent policy shifts under the Trump administration have led to the cancellation of hydrogen-based modernization projects, such as those by Cleveland-Cliffs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000157#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["green hydrogen","carbon capture and storage","Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism","Net-zero emissions"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","India","Russia","South Korea","Turkey","Iran","Germany","Brazil","Australia","European Union"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["capacity assessment","technology trend analysis","policy review","emissions intensity analysis"]},{"id":"gem-000214","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/gem-000214","title":"Pedal to the Metal","publisher":{"name":"Global Energy Monitor","organization":"global-energy-monitor"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2025-05","source_url":"https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM-global-steel-report-May-2025_3.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that while electric arc furnace (EAF) capacity is growing, the global steel industry is not on track for 2030 net-zero goals due to continued investment in coal-based blast furnaces, particularly in India and China. India has emerged as the largest developer of steel capacity, though most of its plans remain in the announcement stage and are heavily carbon-intensive. The report also highlights the strategic importance of iron ore producers like Australia and Brazil in enabling the transition to direct reduced iron (DRI) production.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000214#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Global steelmaking capacity is dominated by China, which holds 48% of steelmaking and 55% of ironmaking capacity, primarily driven by coal-based blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) technology.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000214#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"India has surpassed China as the world's largest developer of steel capacity, accounting for 40% (352 mtpa) of global developments, with a strong preference for coal-based BOF capacity (57% of new coal-based capacity).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000214#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a significant gap between India's announced ambitions and actual execution; only 8% of its 352 mtpa of developing capacity has started construction.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000214#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Lower-emissions electric arc furnace (EAF) capacity is increasing, representing 32% of operating capacity in 2025 and projected to reach 36% by 2030, with 50% of current global developments planning to use EAF technology.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000214#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The phaseout of blast furnaces is slow, with 303 mtpa of BF capacity still under development and 259 relinings completed in the last five years extending 372 mtpa of capacity, locking in emissions for 15–20 years.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000214#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The industry is not on track to meet IEA Net Zero Scenario goals for ironmaking; DRI is projected to reach 15% of the split by 2030, falling short of the required 17%, and only 20% of operating or developing DRI capacity uses or plans to use hydrogen.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000214#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"India's steel industry is the most carbon-intensive globally, emitting 20–25% more CO2 per tonne than China, largely due to a heavy reliance on coal-based DRI in its EAFs.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000214#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Australia and Brazil hold strategic opportunities to lead in green steelmaking due to their large iron ore reserves and renewable energy potential, though Brazil currently produces no DRI-based iron despite being the world's largest producer of DR-grade ore.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000214#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The green transition is threatened by economic pressures, policy uncertainties, and the limited availability of high-quality DR-grade iron ore (only 4% of global supply).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"gem-000214#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["decarbonization","green hydrogen","Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism","emission intensity"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","India","United States","Japan","Russia","South Korea","Turkey","Germany","Iran","Brazil","Australia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["capacity assessment","technology trend analysis","supply chain analysis","policy evaluation"]}]}