Pedal to the Metal

The report finds that while electric arc furnace (EAF) capacity is growing, the global steel industry is not on track for 2030 net-zero goals due to continued investment in coal-based blast furnaces, particularly in India and China. India has emerged as the largest developer of steel capacity, though most of its plans remain in the announcement stage and are heavily carbon-intensive. The report also highlights the strategic importance of iron ore producers like Australia and Brazil in enabling the transition to direct reduced iron (DRI) production.

• Global steelmaking capacity is dominated by China, which holds 48% of steelmaking and 55% of ironmaking capacity, primarily driven by coal-based blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) technology.
• India has surpassed China as the world's largest developer of steel capacity, accounting for 40% (352 mtpa) of global developments, with a strong preference for coal-based BOF capacity (57% of new coal-based capacity).
• There is a significant gap between India's announced ambitions and actual execution; only 8% of its 352 mtpa of developing capacity has started construction.
• Lower-emissions electric arc furnace (EAF) capacity is increasing, representing 32% of operating capacity in 2025 and projected to reach 36% by 2030, with 50% of current global developments planning to use EAF technology.
• The phaseout of blast furnaces is slow, with 303 mtpa of BF capacity still under development and 259 relinings completed in the last five years extending 372 mtpa of capacity, locking in emissions for 15–20 years.
• The industry is not on track to meet IEA Net Zero Scenario goals for ironmaking; DRI is projected to reach 15% of the split by 2030, falling short of the required 17%, and only 20% of operating or developing DRI capacity uses or plans to use hydrogen.
• India's steel industry is the most carbon-intensive globally, emitting 20–25% more CO2 per tonne than China, largely due to a heavy reliance on coal-based DRI in its EAFs.
• Australia and Brazil hold strategic opportunities to lead in green steelmaking due to their large iron ore reserves and renewable energy potential, though Brazil currently produces no DRI-based iron despite being the world's largest producer of DR-grade ore.
• The green transition is threatened by economic pressures, policy uncertainties, and the limited availability of high-quality DR-grade iron ore (only 4% of global supply).

APA

Grigsby-Schulte, A., Khadeeja, H., Swalec, C., Almada, R., Zhang, Z., & Zhi, J. (2025). Pedal to the Metal. Global Energy Monitor. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM-global-steel-report-May-2025_3.pdf

Chicago

Grigsby-Schulte, Astrid, Henna Khadeeja, Caitlin Swalec, Rolando Almada, Ziwei Zhang, and Jessie Zhi. Pedal to the Metal. Global Energy Monitor, 2025. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM-global-steel-report-May-2025_3.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Grigsby-Schulte |first1=Astrid |last2=Khadeeja |first2=Henna |last3=Swalec |first3=Caitlin |last4=Almada |first4=Rolando |last5=Zhang |first5=Ziwei |last6=Zhi |first6=Jessie |title=Pedal to the Metal |publisher=Global Energy Monitor |date=May 2025 |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM-global-steel-report-May-2025_3.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{grigsbyschulte2025pedal, author = {Grigsby-Schulte, Astrid and Khadeeja, Henna and Swalec, Caitlin and Almada, Rolando and Zhang, Ziwei and Zhi, Jessie}, title = {{Pedal to the Metal}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, year = {2025}, month = may, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM-global-steel-report-May-2025_3.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }