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The report finds that 86% of analyzed global marathons will see a decline in the odds of optimal running conditions by 2045. While elite women are more resilient to heat, elite men are most affected, particularly at the Tokyo Marathon, which is projected to see the largest decline in ideal conditions among the Abbott World Marathon Majors. The analysis highlights that the 2025 Tokyo and Berlin Marathons experienced unusual heat made two to three times more likely by climate change. Shifting race start times to sunrise is identified as a potential adaptation to increase the likelihood of optimal temperatures for most runners.

The document identifies 14 distinct tactics of climate obstruction used during UNFCCC negotiations, ranging from overt rejection to subtle procedural delays. It argues that obstruction is unevenly distributed, with wealthier and fossil-fuel-producing nations exercising disproportionate influence. The brief maps these tactics across negotiation stages and predicts their likely application at COP30 in areas such as the Global Goal on Adaptation, fossil fuel phase-outs, and climate finance.

The research evaluates NPP fluctuation in Tanzania to inform livestock productivity and vegetation adaptation. It finds that the number of grazing livestock, including cattle, sheep, and goats, will increase in Tanzanian grasslands under the studied climate scenarios, suggesting a need for improved grassland productivity and conservation for sustainable management.

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was predicted to be more active than normal due to warmer-than-average water temperatures in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico and ENSO-neutral conditions. While climate change may not increase hurricane frequency, it is linked to a 25-30% increase in Category 4 and 5 storms per degree Celsius of warming, more rapid intensification, increased rainfall, and higher storm surges driven by rising sea levels.

The study predicts that under the RCP 8.5 scenario (2041-2070), Mexico's national wheat production will decline by 12% due to climate change, with additional losses of 7% to 18% specifically caused by tropospheric ozone pollution, depending on cultivar sensitivity.

The document warns that Stellenbosch Municipality faces a severe water deficit by 2040, driven by high urban growth and the water-intensive nature of its agricultural sector, particularly grape production. This deficit is projected to cost the local economy R10.3 billion per year and result in the loss of 56,602 jobs. Climate change is expected to further increase agricultural water requirements by 38% by 2040. The report recommends that the municipality decouple population growth from water consumption through conservation and demand measures to mitigate these risks.

The research introduces a random forest model capable of capturing 86 percent of future conflicts, defined as organized violence causing at least 10 fatalities over 12 months. While water-related variables correlate with conflict outcomes, they are not empirically significant for the model's decision-making unless the definition of conflict is adjusted, such as by lowering the fatality threshold. A web-based tool has been developed to allow users to explore these forecasts and indicators to support water-related peace-building interventions.