{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["predictive analysis"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'predictive analysis' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":7,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=predictive+analysis","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"climcent-000344","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/climcent-000344","title":"Running Out of Cool Days","publisher":{"name":"Climate Central","organization":"climate-central"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2025-10-28","source_url":"https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/4FQz6CuX6a2bOAhYf43sel/9b0dd0c433f189dcd2be24939d7a8223/Running_Out_of_Cool_Days__How_climate_change_is_decreasing_the_odds_of_optimal_marathon_conditions.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that 86% of analyzed global marathons will see a decline in the odds of optimal running conditions by 2045. While elite women are more resilient to heat, elite men are most affected, particularly at the Tokyo Marathon, which is projected to see the largest decline in ideal conditions among the Abbott World Marathon Majors. The analysis highlights that the 2025 Tokyo and Berlin Marathons experienced unusual heat made two to three times more likely by climate change. Shifting race start times to sunrise is identified as a potential adaptation to increase the likelihood of optimal temperatures for most runners.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000344#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Of the 221 global marathons analyzed, 86% (190 races) are projected to experience a decrease in the probability of optimal running conditions for either elite or recreational runners by 2045, including all seven Abbott World Marathon Majors.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000344#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Among the Abbott World Marathon Majors, the Tokyo Marathon has the highest current probability of ideal conditions for elite men (69%) but is projected to face the steepest decline for this group, dropping to 57% by 2045.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000344#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Elite female runners exhibit higher temperature tolerance than other groups, and for some races like Boston and Tokyo, warming may actually slightly increase their odds of optimal conditions between 2025 and 2045.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000344#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Human-caused climate change significantly increased the likelihood of extreme heat during the 2025 Tokyo and Berlin Marathons, making the unusual warmth three times and two times more likely, respectively.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000344#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Moving race start times to earlier in the day (near sunrise) could mitigate warming impacts for most runners; for example, it would increase the 2045 probability of peak conditions for elite men in London from 17% to 61%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000344#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","extreme weather event","climate change adaptation"],"geography_discussed":["Tokyo","Berlin","London","Boston","New York City","Chicago","Sydney","Europe","Canada","United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["predictive analysis","attribution analysis"]},{"id":"cssn-000042","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/cssn-000042","title":"Climate Obstruction in the UNFCCC","publisher":{"name":"Climate Social Science Network","organization":"climate-social-science-network"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"en","date_published":"2025","source_url":"https://cssn.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/CSSN-POLICY-BRIEF-FINAL-DRAFT-Google-Docs.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document identifies 14 distinct tactics of climate obstruction used during UNFCCC negotiations, ranging from overt rejection to subtle procedural delays. It argues that obstruction is unevenly distributed, with wealthier and fossil-fuel-producing nations exercising disproportionate influence. The brief maps these tactics across negotiation stages and predicts their likely application at COP30 in areas such as the Global Goal on Adaptation, fossil fuel phase-outs, and climate finance.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cssn-000042#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The document establishes a typology of 14 obstruction tactics used in UNFCCC negotiations, categorized from overt to subtle. These include 'Outright rejection' (e.g., vetoing fossil fuel references), 'Deny credibility' (e.g., reducing the weight of WMO reports), 'Strategic pessimism' (e.g., citing limited fiscal space to avoid finance), 'Redirect responsibility', 'Agenda manipulation', 'Erode accountability', 'Divert attention', 'Advance non-transformative solutions' (e.g., promoting CCS over phase-outs), 'Procedural delay', 'Concept manipulation' (e.g., diluting loss and damage terms), 'Reduce transparency', 'Venue shifting', 'Confine scope', and 'Perfectionism-pragmatism traps' (e.g., stalling the Global Goal for Adaptation through a search for perfect indicators).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cssn-000042#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Obstruction is described as an evolving and uneven phenomenon. While early tactics focused on climate change denialism and rejection of commitments, modern obstruction is more subtle, involving the manipulation of agendas, definitions of climate finance, and accountability mechanisms. Power asymmetries mean that fossil-fuel-producing and wealthier countries have historically had a disproportionate role in slowing progress and setting agendas.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cssn-000042#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The brief anticipates specific obstruction risks for COP30 in Belém, Brazil. Key areas of concern include the Global Goal on Adaptation (risks of perfectionism-pragmatism traps), Forests (promotion of offsets over deforestation targets), Fossil Fuels (opposition to the Mitigation Work Programme), Finance (disputes over Article 9.1), and Loss & Damage (disputes over scale and contributors).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cssn-000042#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Beyond the formal agenda, the document identifies external factors likely to trigger obstruction at COP30, including the non-binding nature of the International Court of Justice advisory opinion, the potential absence of the US delegation leading to lower ambition in other developed countries, and the use of geopolitical crises (wars and cost-of-living) to justify inaction on finance.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cssn-000042#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change","climate finance","fossil-fuel phase-out","loss and damage","Global Goal on Adaptation","carbon capture and storage","Nationally Determined Contributions","just transition","climate governance","Global stocktake"],"geography_discussed":["Brazil","Belém","Vanuatu","United States"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["typology","policy analysis","predictive analysis"]},{"id":"sei-000322","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-000322","title":"Evaluating the grassland NPP in Tanzania","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2021-03-23","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/publications/evaluating-the-grassland-npp-in-tanzania/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research evaluates NPP fluctuation in Tanzania to inform livestock productivity and vegetation adaptation. It finds that the number of grazing livestock, including cattle, sheep, and goats, will increase in Tanzanian grasslands under the studied climate scenarios, suggesting a need for improved grassland productivity and conservation for sustainable management.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000322#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The study predicts that the population of grazing livestock, specifically cattle, sheep, and goats, will increase within Tanzanian grasslands according to the climate scenarios analyzed.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000322#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To achieve sustainable grassland management, the document recommends implementing measures to conserve grasslands under environmental pressures and enhance their productivity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000322#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","food security"],"geography_discussed":["Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["predictive analysis"]},{"id":"climcent-000149","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/climcent-000149","title":"2020 Hurricane Season","publisher":{"name":"Climate Central","organization":"climate-central"},"document_type":"fact sheet","language":"en","date_published":"2020-06-01","source_url":"https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/2020-hurricane-season","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was predicted to be more active than normal due to warmer-than-average water temperatures in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico and ENSO-neutral conditions. While climate change may not increase hurricane frequency, it is linked to a 25-30% increase in Category 4 and 5 storms per degree Celsius of warming, more rapid intensification, increased rainfall, and higher storm surges driven by rising sea levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000149#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Forecasters from NOAA and other experts predicted a more active than normal hurricane season for 2020, driven by warmer-than-average water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic, as well as predicted ENSO-neutral conditions which reduce the vertical windshear that typically disrupts hurricane formation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000149#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change is increasing the intensity of hurricanes rather than their frequency; specifically, the proportion of Category 4 and 5 storms has risen by 25-30% for every degree Celsius of warming.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000149#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Global warming contributes to more rapid intensification of storms—defined as a wind speed increase of at least 35 mph within 24 hours—which increases damage potential because hurricane damage increases logarithmically with wind speed.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000149#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Rising global temperatures increase hurricane rainfall because warmer air holds more moisture, with a 4% increase in water capacity for every 1°F rise in temperature.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000149#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Sea level rise, which has already reached almost one foot above pre-industrial levels, exacerbates storm surges, which are responsible for 50% of all hurricane fatalities in the U.S.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"climcent-000149#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["hurricane","climate change","sea level rise","storm surge"],"geography_discussed":["United States","Pacific Ocean","North Carolina"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["predictive analysis","scientific synthesis"]},{"id":"sei-001011","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-001011","title":"Impacts of tropospheric ozone and climate change on Mexico wheat production","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2019-05-09","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/publications/impacts-of-tropospheric-ozone-and-climate-change-on-mexico-wheat-production/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study predicts that under the RCP 8.5 scenario (2041-2070), Mexico's national wheat production will decline by 12% due to climate change, with additional losses of 7% to 18% specifically caused by tropospheric ozone pollution, depending on cultivar sensitivity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001011#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Simulations across 32 major wheat-producing locations in Mexico showed that yield losses due to ozone impact varied between 7% and 26%, influenced by location, irrigation, and the climate change emissions scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001011#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"At a national scale under the RCP 8.5 scenario, Mexico's wheat production is projected to decrease by 12%, with further losses of 7% to 18% attributed to ozone impact, varying by the sensitivity of the cultivar.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001011#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The reduction in wheat yield caused by tropospheric ozone is found to be similar to, or potentially greater than, the impacts resulting from projected changes in rainfall, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001011#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","food security"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario modelling","predictive analysis"]},{"id":"greenca-000247","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/greenca-000247","title":"Municipal Snapshot 03/2018","publisher":{"name":"GreenCape","organization":"greencape"},"document_type":"fact sheet","language":"en","date_published":"2018-03","source_url":"https://greencape.co.za/assets/Uploads/STELLENBOSCH-SNAPSHOT-5.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document warns that Stellenbosch Municipality faces a severe water deficit by 2040, driven by high urban growth and the water-intensive nature of its agricultural sector, particularly grape production. This deficit is projected to cost the local economy R10.3 billion per year and result in the loss of 56,602 jobs. Climate change is expected to further increase agricultural water requirements by 38% by 2040. The report recommends that the municipality decouple population growth from water consumption through conservation and demand measures to mitigate these risks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greenca-000247#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"By 2040, the water deficit in Stellenbosch Municipality could result in an annual economic loss of R10.3 billion, representing 77% of the current economy, and a loss of 56,602 jobs per year, which is 87% of current employment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greenca-000247#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Urban water requirements in Stellenbosch Municipality are projected to grow by 96% by 2040, necessitating a decoupling of population growth and water consumption via demand measures and conservation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greenca-000247#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change is projected to increase agricultural water requirements in the municipality by 38% between 2015 and 2040, with specific increases of 34% for grapes and 29% for stone fruit.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greenca-000247#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The municipality's water supply deficit is estimated at 32.8 million m3 per year by 2025, accounting for 23% of the Berg WMA's total deficit, and is expected to rise to approximately 48.7 million m3 per year by 2040.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greenca-000247#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Agriculture is a primary driver of water usage in the municipality, with grapes alone consuming 88% of all irrigated water.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"greenca-000247#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["water scarcity","climate change","water conservation"],"geography_discussed":["Berg WMA","Drakenstein Local Municipality","Swartland Local Municipality"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["predictive analysis","economic impact analysis"]},{"id":"wri-000877","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/wri-000877","title":"Leveraging Water Data in a Machine Learning–Based Model for Forecasting Violent Conflict","publisher":{"name":"World Resources Institute","organization":"world-resources-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://www.wri.org/research/leveraging-water-data-machine-learning-based-model-forecasting-violent-conflict","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research introduces a random forest model capable of capturing 86 percent of future conflicts, defined as organized violence causing at least 10 fatalities over 12 months. While water-related variables correlate with conflict outcomes, they are not empirically significant for the model's decision-making unless the definition of conflict is adjusted, such as by lowering the fatality threshold. A web-based tool has been developed to allow users to explore these forecasts and indicators to support water-related peace-building interventions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-000877#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The random forest model used to forecast conflict—defined as organized violence resulting in at least 10 fatalities over a 12-month period—captures 86 percent of future conflicts when applied to test data, although half of these predictions are false positives.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-000877#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Water-related variables correlate with conflict outcomes but are not empirically significant for the model's decision-making process, though their significance increases if the fatality threshold for conflict is lowered or if the model focuses only on emerging conflict.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"wri-000877#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["methodology","predictive analysis"]}]}