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The document examines the intersection of the Niger Delta insurgency and Nigeria's 2007 general elections. It argues that the region's instability is driven by ecological damage, poverty, and a lack of political autonomy for ethnic minorities, exacerbated by the failure of the 13 percent oil revenue award and the activities of oil companies. The author warns that if the elections are perceived as fraudulent, armed groups like the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) may use the chaos to advance their goals through violence, potentially disrupting global oil markets. The briefing outlines several scenarios for the election aftermath, ranging from chaotic inconclusive polls to potential impeachment or military intervention, and recommends a sovereign national conference to renegotiate the federation's political and economic foundations.

The briefing examines the tense pre-electoral environment in Angola, highlighting accusations of election rigging by the MPLA and the potential for social unrest driven by youth and war veterans. It notes the limited influence of SADC and the muted response of international partners like the US and EU, which are driven by strategic and economic interests, particularly oil. The document also emphasizes the need for Angola to diversify its oil-dependent economy to ensure long-term stability.

The report examines Zimbabwe's stalled transition following the 2017 ousting of Robert Mugabe and the 2018 elections. It argues that while President Emmerson Mnangagwa has adopted an 'open for business' slogan, genuine international re-engagement is blocked by a profound deficit of trust, persistent economic instability, and a lack of substantive political reform. The document highlights the role of targeted sanctions, the influence of China, and the critical importance of national dialogue and legislative reform in restoring Zimbabwe's global standing.