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Calculating Risk and Uncertainty
The paper examines the tension between 'risk as uncertainty' and 'risk versus uncertainty' in economic thought. It contrasts Keynes's view that incalculable uncertainty necessitates government intervention with Hayek's argument that the market's price system efficiently manages such uncertainty. The author traces how mid-century economic theory collapsed this distinction, leading to the birth of modern finance and the quantification of risk, a trend challenged by the 2007-2009 global financial crisis.
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Document type: Research paper
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