{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["epistemological analysis"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'epistemological analysis' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":1,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=epistemological+analysis","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"prio-001257","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001257","title":"Calculating Risk and Uncertainty","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2009-06-05","source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/307ca470-a64d-4281-9876-5ae0a61c9837/Calculating Risk and Uncertainty.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The paper examines the tension between 'risk as uncertainty' and 'risk versus uncertainty' in economic thought. It contrasts Keynes's view that incalculable uncertainty necessitates government intervention with Hayek's argument that the market's price system efficiently manages such uncertainty. The author traces how mid-century economic theory collapsed this distinction, leading to the birth of modern finance and the quantification of risk, a trend challenged by the 2007-2009 global financial crisis.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001257#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"John Maynard Keynes and Friedrich August von Hayek both rejected the possibility of using statistical measurement to quantify genuine uncertainty, though they differed on the resulting policy implications.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001257#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Keynes argued that because long-term expectations are often irrational and driven by 'animal spirits', exogenous government intervention through taxation and public spending is required to correct economic dis-coordination.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001257#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Hayek contended that the market's price system acts as a mechanism to aggregate dispersed, local knowledge, allowing entrepreneurs to make decisions without needing a total account of all relevant information.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001257#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Between 1930 and 1970, economic theory shifted toward a 'risk as uncertainty' equivalence, where uncertainty was reduced to numerically determinate probability, facilitating the mathematization of the field.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001257#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Modern finance theory, including the Black-Scholes Option Pricing formula and modern portfolio theory, emerged from the institutionalization of probabilistic risk measurement, treating the quantification of uncertainty as a scientific truth.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001257#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 is presented as a moment where incalculable uncertainty returned, falsifying normal distribution models and exposing the limits of probabilistic numerical risk assessment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001257#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["risk management"],"geography_discussed":["Germany"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["epistemological analysis","historical review","comparative theoretical analysis"]}]}