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The research paper examines the psychological mechanisms through which political violence fuels intergroup conflict, focusing on the distinction between selective and indiscriminate violence. Using panel surveys and endorsement experiments in Nairobi and Mombasa during the 2017 Kenyan elections, the authors test the 'cognitive perspective' of group identification. They find that indiscriminate violence—attacks that target populations regardless of individual guilt—induces fear of future victimization, which subsequently increases prejudice and support for social segregation. These effects were statistically significant among Christian respondents, while results for Muslim respondents were less clear due to smaller sample sizes and different dynamics, such as fear of state retribution following Islamist attacks.

The research examines the causal chain from formal (de jure) power-sharing institutions to peace, arguing that institutions operate primarily by inducing specific behavioral practices (de facto power-sharing). Using a global dataset of 180 countries from 1975 to 2010, the authors find that inclusive institutions increase the share of ethnic groups in government, which reduces the likelihood of rebellions by excluded groups but increases the risk of infighting among coalition partners. Dispersive institutions, such as federalism, are found to decrease the risk of ethnic conflict by increasing regional autonomy for minorities, although this effect is less statistically robust than that of inclusive institutions.