How indiscriminate violence fuels conflicts between groups: Evidence from Kenya

The research paper examines the psychological mechanisms through which political violence fuels intergroup conflict, focusing on the distinction between selective and indiscriminate violence. Using panel surveys and endorsement experiments in Nairobi and Mombasa during the 2017 Kenyan elections, the authors test the 'cognitive perspective' of group identification. They find that indiscriminate violence—attacks that target populations regardless of individual guilt—induces fear of future victimization, which subsequently increases prejudice and support for social segregation. These effects were statistically significant among Christian respondents, while results for Muslim respondents were less clear due to smaller sample sizes and different dynamics, such as fear of state retribution following Islamist attacks.

• Indiscriminate violence by Islamist groups significantly increases fear among Christian respondents, whereas selective violence does not have this effect.
• Fear of Islamist violence leads Christian respondents to be more supportive of religiously segregated neighborhoods and less accepting of inter-religious marriage.
• An endorsement experiment confirmed that exposure to indiscriminate Islamist violence causes Christians to develop negative attitudes toward Muslims, independent of immediate security concerns.
• Among Muslim respondents, exposure to indiscriminate Islamist violence was associated with an increased fear of being targeted by Kenyan state security forces (KSF), likely due to anticipated retribution.
• Indiscriminate violence by Kenyan security forces (KSF) has a direct negative effect on the support for inter-religious marriage among Muslim respondents.
• The study concludes that the 'cognitive perspective' of group conflict has predictive power, as attacks against civilians increase the salience of divisive group identities.

APA

Schutte, S., Ruhe, C., & Linke, A. (n.d.). How indiscriminate violence fuels conflicts between groups: Evidence from Kenya. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/06c1d903-4cca-409e-ac95-01921dcd00be/How indiscriminate violence fuels conflicts between groups Evidence from Kenya.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Schutte, Sebastian, Constantin Ruhe, and Andrew Linke. How indiscriminate violence fuels conflicts between groups: Evidence from Kenya. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/06c1d903-4cca-409e-ac95-01921dcd00be/How indiscriminate violence fuels conflicts between groups Evidence from Kenya.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Schutte |first1=Sebastian |last2=Ruhe |first2=Constantin |last3=Linke |first3=Andrew |title=How indiscriminate violence fuels conflicts between groups: Evidence from Kenya |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/06c1d903-4cca-409e-ac95-01921dcd00be/How indiscriminate violence fuels conflicts between groups Evidence from Kenya.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{schuttendhow, author = {Schutte, Sebastian and Ruhe, Constantin and Linke, Andrew}, title = {{How indiscriminate violence fuels conflicts between groups: Evidence from Kenya}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/06c1d903-4cca-409e-ac95-01921dcd00be/How indiscriminate violence fuels conflicts between groups Evidence from Kenya.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }