{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["causal mediation analysis"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'causal mediation analysis' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":2,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=causal+mediation+analysis","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"prio-001466","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001466","title":"How indiscriminate violence fuels conflicts between groups: Evidence from Kenya","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/06c1d903-4cca-409e-ac95-01921dcd00be/How indiscriminate violence fuels conflicts between groups Evidence from Kenya.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research paper examines the psychological mechanisms through which political violence fuels intergroup conflict, focusing on the distinction between selective and indiscriminate violence. Using panel surveys and endorsement experiments in Nairobi and Mombasa during the 2017 Kenyan elections, the authors test the 'cognitive perspective' of group identification. They find that indiscriminate violence—attacks that target populations regardless of individual guilt—induces fear of future victimization, which subsequently increases prejudice and support for social segregation. These effects were statistically significant among Christian respondents, while results for Muslim respondents were less clear due to smaller sample sizes and different dynamics, such as fear of state retribution following Islamist attacks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001466#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Indiscriminate violence by Islamist groups significantly increases fear among Christian respondents, whereas selective violence does not have this effect.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001466#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Fear of Islamist violence leads Christian respondents to be more supportive of religiously segregated neighborhoods and less accepting of inter-religious marriage.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001466#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"An endorsement experiment confirmed that exposure to indiscriminate Islamist violence causes Christians to develop negative attitudes toward Muslims, independent of immediate security concerns.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001466#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Among Muslim respondents, exposure to indiscriminate Islamist violence was associated with an increased fear of being targeted by Kenyan state security forces (KSF), likely due to anticipated retribution.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001466#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Indiscriminate violence by Kenyan security forces (KSF) has a direct negative effect on the support for inter-religious marriage among Muslim respondents.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001466#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The study concludes that the 'cognitive perspective' of group conflict has predictive power, as attacks against civilians increase the salience of divisive group identities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001466#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Nairobi","Mombasa","Somalia"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["causal mediation analysis","two-way fixed effects estimation","endorsement experiment","panel survey"]},{"id":"prio-001655","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/prio-001655","title":"Power-sharing: Institutions, Behavior, and Peace","publisher":{"name":"Peace Research Institute Oslo","organization":"peace-research-institute-oslo"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/6b9ad814-de9f-4f4e-a291-f672fc81e038/Power Sharing Institutions Behavior and Peace.pdf?inline=true","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The research examines the causal chain from formal (de jure) power-sharing institutions to peace, arguing that institutions operate primarily by inducing specific behavioral practices (de facto power-sharing). Using a global dataset of 180 countries from 1975 to 2010, the authors find that inclusive institutions increase the share of ethnic groups in government, which reduces the likelihood of rebellions by excluded groups but increases the risk of infighting among coalition partners. Dispersive institutions, such as federalism, are found to decrease the risk of ethnic conflict by increasing regional autonomy for minorities, although this effect is less statistically robust than that of inclusive institutions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001655#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Formal inclusive power-sharing institutions effectively induce the behavior they are designed for by significantly increasing the proportion of ethnic groups represented in central governments.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001655#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Inclusive power-sharing practices create a trade-off: they reduce the probability of conflict between the government and excluded groups, but simultaneously increase the probability of infighting among the ethnic groups within the governing coalition.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001655#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The overall effect of inclusive institutions on general ethnic conflict often appears null or inconclusive because the pacifying effect on excluded groups and the destabilizing effect on coalition partners offset each other.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001655#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Dispersive power-sharing institutions, which decentralize power to subnational levels, decrease the risk of ethnic civil war and territorial conflict by increasing the regional autonomy of ethnic minorities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001655#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Causal mediation analysis indicates that formal power-sharing institutions have little to no direct effect on conflict; their influence is almost entirely mediated through the behavioral practices they induce.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001655#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"When the causal order is reversed in empirical models, the results show that power-sharing practices have a direct effect on conflict that cannot be explained as being mediated by formal institutions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"prio-001655#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":[],"geography_discussed":["Lebanon","Angola","South Africa","Syria","Ethiopia","Guatemala","Indonesia","Nigeria","Belgium","Bosnia and Herzegovina","Fiji"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["causal mediation analysis","quantitative research","comparative political analysis"]}]}