Heat pumps and climate change

Heat pumps are identified as a cornerstone for sustainable buildings, capable of significantly reducing CO2 emissions by replacing fossil fuel heating. While technologically mature and often cheaper over their lifetime than gas boilers in several major economies, their rollout is hindered by high upfront costs, poor building insulation, and a shortage of skilled technicians. The document highlights that meeting 2030 climate pledges will require tripling the global heat pump workforce to over 1.3 million and implementing strategic policies such as financial incentives, building codes, and innovative business models like heat-as-a-service.

• Heat pumps are highly efficient, typically producing four units of heat for every one unit of electricity used, making them three to five times more efficient than gas boilers and about four times more efficient than conventional electric heaters.
• If governments meet their announced energy and climate pledges, heat pumps will provide nearly 20% of building heat by 2030, accounting for half of the reduction in fossil fuel use for building heat by that year.
• In 2021, air-source heat pumps were found to be cheaper over their lifetime than gas boilers (without subsidies) in the US, Korea, Japan, Italy, and China, and marginally cheaper in Canada.
• The industrial sector could see 10% of its energy demand met by current heat pump technology, with the highest potential in low-temperature heat sectors such as chemicals, food, and paper.
• Significant barriers to adoption include poorly insulated buildings, high initial costs, and a critical shortage of trained installers; the global workforce must grow from 450,000 in 2019 to over 1.3 million by 2030 to meet pledges.
• While heat pumps reduce operational emissions, many use hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) as refrigerants, which are potent greenhouse gases that can be thousands of times more damaging than CO2 if leaked.
• Policy momentum is increasing, with the EU's REPowerEU plan targeting 10 million installations between 2023 and 2028, and several countries including Germany and the Netherlands announcing bans on 100% fossil fuel heating systems.

APA

Team, Z. (2023). Heat pumps and climate change. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/heat-pumps-and-climate-change/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. Heat pumps and climate change. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2023. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/heat-pumps-and-climate-change/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=Heat pumps and climate change |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=20 July 2023 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/heat-pumps-and-climate-change/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2023heat, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{Heat pumps and climate change}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2023}, month = jul, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/heat-pumps-and-climate-change/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }