Interplay of climate change exacerbated rainfall exposure and vulnerability led to widespread impacts in the Mediterranean region

A World Weather Attribution study found that human-induced climate change significantly increased the likelihood and intensity of extreme rainfall events in the Mediterranean region in September 2023. In Libya, a 1-in-300 to 600 year event became up to 50 times more likely and 50% more intense compared to a 1.2C cooler climate. In a region encompassing Greece, Bulgaria, and Türkiye, similar events became up to 10 times more likely and 40% more intense. The study highlights that while climate change exacerbated the weather, the scale of the disaster—particularly in Libya—was compounded by state fragility, lack of dam maintenance, and inadequate emergency communication.

• Human-induced climate change increased the probability and intensity of the extreme rainfall events. For the region including Greece and parts of Bulgaria and Türkiye, such an event became up to 10 times more likely and up to 40% more intense. In Libya, an event of the observed magnitude became up to 50 times more likely and up to 50% more intense compared to a climate that was 1.2C cooler.
• The return periods for the rainfall events varied by region: the event in Libya was a 1-in-300 to 1-in-600 year event, in central Greece it was a 1-in-80 to 1-in-250 year event, in the larger Greece-Bulgaria-Türkiye (GBT) region it was a 1-in-5 to 1-in-10 year event, and in Spain it was a 1-in-10 to 1-in-40 year event.
• In Libya, the disaster's impact was severely worsened by non-climatic factors, including ongoing conflict and state fragility, which led to the deterioration of dam infrastructure and hindered national adaptation planning. The Al-Bilad and Abu Mansour dams, built in the 1970s, may not have been designed for a 1-in-300 to 600 year event.
• In Greece, the vulnerability to flooding was increased by landscape changes, specifically deforestation and high rates of urbanisation, which reduced stormwater drainage and increased the exposure of people and assets.
• Despite a 3-day lead time forecast for Storm Daniel in Libya, the potential impact on infrastructure and people was not clearly understood, and it remains uncertain if warnings reached the public or emergency responders.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2023). Interplay of climate change exacerbated rainfall exposure and vulnerability led to widespread impacts in the Mediterranean region. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/interplay-of-climate-change-exacerbated-rainfall-exposure-and-vulnerability-led-to-widespread-impacts-in-the-mediterranean-region/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Interplay of climate change exacerbated rainfall exposure and vulnerability led to widespread impacts in the Mediterranean region. 2023. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/interplay-of-climate-change-exacerbated-rainfall-exposure-and-vulnerability-led-to-widespread-impacts-in-the-mediterranean-region/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Interplay of climate change exacerbated rainfall exposure and vulnerability led to widespread impacts in the Mediterranean region |date=19 September 2023 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/interplay-of-climate-change-exacerbated-rainfall-exposure-and-vulnerability-led-to-widespread-impacts-in-the-mediterranean-region/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2023interplay, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Interplay of climate change exacerbated rainfall exposure and vulnerability led to widespread impacts in the Mediterranean region}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2023}, month = sep, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/interplay-of-climate-change-exacerbated-rainfall-exposure-and-vulnerability-led-to-widespread-impacts-in-the-mediterranean-region/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }