Weather conditions leading to deadly wildfires in Turkiye, Cyprus and Greece made 10 times more likely due to climate change

A research paper by World Weather Attribution finding that climate change made the extreme fire weather conditions of 2025 in Türkiye, Greece, and Cyprus approximately 10 times more likely and significantly more intense.

• Human-induced climate change has significantly increased the probability and severity of the fire weather conditions observed in 2025. For the cumulative daily severity rating (DSR), the likelihood of such an event increased by a factor of 10, with an intensity increase of approximately 22%. For the Vapour Pressure Deficit (VPD7x), the likelihood increased by a factor of about 13, with intensity increasing by about 18%.
• Current empirical weather data indicates that in a climate warmed by 1.3°C relative to preindustrial levels, the extreme conditions driving the 2025 wildfires are expected every 20 years. Without this warming, the DSR-characterized event would only be expected once every 100 years, representing a five-fold increase in likelihood and a 14% increase in intensity.
• Future warming is projected to further exacerbate fire weather risks. If global temperatures reach 2.6°C—a projection under current policies—DSR conditions are expected to become nine times more likely and 25% more intense than they are now, while VPD7x conditions are projected to be six times more likely and 18% more intense.
• Long-term trends show a decrease in pre-fire season rainfall (October to April) of around 14% across the regions, with a stronger drying trend in Türkiye. Additionally, weather patterns between 1994 and 2023 show more intense high-pressure systems and stronger northward ridges compared to the 1951–1980 period, contributing to more intense heat and stronger northerly winds.
• The 2025 wildfires caused significant loss of life and land: at least 17 people died in Türkiye (including 10 firefighters in Eskişehir), two people died in Cyprus, and one person died in Greece in August. In Türkiye, approximately 60,000 hectares were devastated in July, while Cyprus lost about 125 square kilometers (1% of the island).

APA

World Weather Attribution (2025). Weather conditions leading to deadly wildfires in Turkiye, Cyprus and Greece made 10 times more likely due to climate change. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/weather-conditions-leading-to-deadly-wildfires-in-turkiye-cyprus-and-greece-made-10-times-more-likely-due-to-climate-change/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Weather conditions leading to deadly wildfires in Turkiye, Cyprus and Greece made 10 times more likely due to climate change. 2025. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/weather-conditions-leading-to-deadly-wildfires-in-turkiye-cyprus-and-greece-made-10-times-more-likely-due-to-climate-change/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Weather conditions leading to deadly wildfires in Turkiye, Cyprus and Greece made 10 times more likely due to climate change |date=28 August 2025 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/weather-conditions-leading-to-deadly-wildfires-in-turkiye-cyprus-and-greece-made-10-times-more-likely-due-to-climate-change/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2025weather, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Weather conditions leading to deadly wildfires in Turkiye, Cyprus and Greece made 10 times more likely due to climate change}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2025}, month = aug, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/weather-conditions-leading-to-deadly-wildfires-in-turkiye-cyprus-and-greece-made-10-times-more-likely-due-to-climate-change/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }