Trends in weather extremes

The analysis finds that heat and cold extremes are warming globally in line with average temperatures, with cold extremes in Siberia and Canada warming particularly fast. Extreme daily precipitation is generally increasing at a rate of approximately 7% per degree Celsius, though regional variations exist. While trends in tropical cyclone frequency are difficult to determine, their impacts have increased due to higher precipitation and sea level rise. Drought trends remain complex and highly dependent on the specific definition used.

• Heat extremes, defined as the highest daily average temperature of the year, have increased almost everywhere compared to a century ago. Exceptions include the eastern U.S., where current extremes are similar to the 1930s Dust Bowl, and India, where air pollution and irrigation have counteracted greenhouse gas warming since the 1970s.
• Cold extremes, measured by the coldest daily average temperature of the year, are warming faster than heat extremes, with some increases reaching five times the global mean temperature. The most significant increases over land are observed in Canada and Siberia.
• The highest daily precipitation of the year has increased at more stations than it has decreased. The average increase is approximately 7% per degree Celsius, aligning with the Clausius–Clapeyron relation, although regional deviations occur in Colorado, the Mediterranean, and northwestern Europe.
• While trends in the number and intensity of tropical cyclones are difficult to establish due to improved observing systems and decadal variability, their physical impacts have increased. This is driven by higher storm surges from sea level rise and increased extreme precipitation, such as a 15% increase on the U.S. Gulf Coast over the last century.
• General statements about drought trends are difficult because they depend on the definition used: meteorological (absence of rain), agricultural (soil moisture deficit), hydrological (water transport), or socio-economic (water shortage for societal use). For example, hydrological droughts in California can be caused by temperature increases reducing spring snowpack.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2018). Trends in weather extremes. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/trends-in-weather-extremes-february-2018/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Trends in weather extremes. 2018. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/trends-in-weather-extremes-february-2018/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Trends in weather extremes |date=28 February 2018 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/trends-in-weather-extremes-february-2018/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2018trends, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Trends in weather extremes}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2018}, month = feb, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/trends-in-weather-extremes-february-2018/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }