SOUTH AFRICA’S 2035 NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION: An opportunity to boost industrial competitiveness and attract investment

The document outlines the economic and environmental necessity for South Africa to raise its climate ambition in its second NDC. It emphasizes that transitioning from a coal-dependent economy to one powered by renewables is an economic imperative to avoid trade risks from Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs) and to unlock new industries like green hydrogen and electric vehicles. The briefing provides sector-specific recommendations for power, transport, and heavy industry, while stressing the need for deep public-private collaboration and the inclusion of SMEs to achieve a net-zero target by 2050.

• South Africa's second NDC sets a greenhouse gas emissions target range of 320 to 380 MtCO2e for 2035, reaffirming a net-zero goal by 2050. However, there is a lack of consensus among stakeholders; civil society argues the target lacks sufficient ambition, while carbon-intensive industries express concerns over operational costs and competitiveness.
• Transitioning away from coal is presented as an economic necessity rather than just a climate priority. A survey of 104 South African business executives revealed that 86% support phasing out coal for electricity generation by 2035, and 84% would consider relocating operations or supply chains abroad if the country does not transition away from fossil fuels.
• The power sector requires a massive scale-up of renewables to reach net zero, with an estimated 190 GW of renewables needed by 2050. The document recommends targeting 6–8 GW of new renewable energy annually through the REIPPPP and private investment, while committing to no new coal-fired power plants.
• The transport sector, which contributes approximately 11% of national GHG emissions, offers significant economic opportunities through electrification. A fully electrified mobility sector by 2050 could save the South African economy approximately ZAR 255 billion annually, or 3.75% of GDP.
• Heavy industry faces high transition costs and complexity, requiring an estimated ZAR 150–160 billion to upgrade plants for green processes. The document suggests focusing on mature technologies to reduce 40% of Scope 1 and 2 emissions and leveraging green hydrogen for low-carbon steel.
• South Africa faces significant trade risks from Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs) implemented by the European Union and the United Kingdom, which threaten exports of aluminium, fertilizers, and iron and steel. An ambitious NDC is viewed as a tool to mitigate these risks and maintain market access.
• Climate adaptation is critical due to South Africa warming at twice the global average. A key priority is the restoration of 22 Strategic Water Source Areas (SWSAs), which cover 8% of national land but provide 50% of the country's water and support two-thirds of economic activity.

APA

Maree, G., McNamara, A., Briner, G., Deonarain, B., Barnes, G., Prag, A., & Clandillon, S. (2025). SOUTH AFRICA’S 2035 NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION: An opportunity to boost industrial competitiveness and attract investment. We Mean Business Coalition. https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/NBI-and-WMBC-2025-South-Africa-NDC-note.pdf

Chicago

Maree, Gillian, Alex McNamara, Gregory Briner, Bhavna Deonarain, Garth Barnes, Andrew Prag, and Susan Clandillon. SOUTH AFRICA’S 2035 NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION: An opportunity to boost industrial competitiveness and attract investment. We Mean Business Coalition, 2025. https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/NBI-and-WMBC-2025-South-Africa-NDC-note.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Maree |first1=Gillian |last2=McNamara |first2=Alex |last3=Briner |first3=Gregory |last4=Deonarain |first4=Bhavna |last5=Barnes |first5=Garth |last6=Prag |first6=Andrew |last7=Clandillon |first7=Susan |title=SOUTH AFRICA’S 2035 NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION: An opportunity to boost industrial competitiveness and attract investment |publisher=We Mean Business Coalition |date=November 2025 |url=https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/NBI-and-WMBC-2025-South-Africa-NDC-note.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{maree2025south, author = {Maree, Gillian and McNamara, Alex and Briner, Gregory and Deonarain, Bhavna and Barnes, Garth and Prag, Andrew and Clandillon, Susan}, title = {{SOUTH AFRICA’S 2035 NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION: An opportunity to boost industrial competitiveness and attract investment}}, institution = {We Mean Business Coalition}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/NBI-and-WMBC-2025-South-Africa-NDC-note.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }