What Future for Climate and Trade?

The document introduces 'carbon competitiveness' as the intersection of climate efforts and their impact on traded products and services. It presents four scenarios for 2030: 'Climate on track' (high cooperation, 43% emissions drop), 'Fractured effort' (protectionism, 30% emissions drop), 'Exponential disasters' (resource conflict, 125% emissions increase), and 'Collective avoidance' (policy inertia, 115% emissions increase). To optimize outcomes, it recommends that governments align carbon accounting, coordinate green subsidies, and expand inclusive climate clubs, while businesses should assess their value chain resilience and engage with policy-makers.

• The authors define "carbon competitiveness" as the interaction between climate efforts and their impact on traded products and services in the global economy, which will determine the success of slowing climate change over the next decade.
• In the 'Climate on track' scenario, strong international cooperation and a joint WTO–UNFCCC working party lead to a 43% decline in global emissions from 2019 levels by 2030, with global GDP growth reaching approximately 4% annually.
• The 'Fractured effort' scenario is characterized by rising protectionism and non-inclusive climate clubs, resulting in a 30% decline in global emissions by 2030 and a slowdown in global growth to 2.75%.
• The 'Exponential disasters' scenario involves intense conflict over critical materials and a shift toward adaptation over mitigation, causing global emissions to increase to 125% of 2019 levels by 2030.
• The 'Collective avoidance' scenario describes a future of policy inertia and surface-level talks, where global emissions increase to 115% of 2019 levels by 2030 and the share of environmental goods in manufactured trade drops to 7%.
• To improve carbon competitiveness, governments are advised to align carbon accounting standards, agree on principles for green subsidies, promote green economy development programmes, create inclusive climate clubs, and use international institutions coherently.
• Businesses are recommended to assess their own carbon competitiveness, understand supply chain resilience (particularly regarding critical raw materials), leverage new green investment opportunities, collaborate with networks, and engage with policy-makers.

APA

World Economic Forum (2023). What Future for Climate and Trade? https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_What_Future_for_Climate_and_Trade_2023.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. What Future for Climate and Trade? 2023. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_What_Future_for_Climate_and_Trade_2023.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=What Future for Climate and Trade? |date=June 2023 |url=https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_What_Future_for_Climate_and_Trade_2023.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2023what, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{What Future for Climate and Trade?}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2023}, month = jun, url = {https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_What_Future_for_Climate_and_Trade_2023.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }