An Analysis of the Impacts of Zero-Emission Medium-and Heavy-Duty Trucks on the Environment, Public Health, Industry, and the Economy

The analysis models three policy scenarios for Southern New England, ranging from the adoption of California's Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) rule to a more aggressive '100 x 40 ZEV + Clean Grid' scenario. The findings indicate that transitioning the M/HD fleet to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) would yield significant net societal benefits, including reduced premature deaths, lower greenhouse gas emissions, and long-term cost savings for fleets and electricity customers. While initial purchase costs for ZEVs are higher, the report projects lifetime cost parity with combustion vehicles by 2035. Macroeconomic analysis suggests the transition would result in national net job gains and increased GDP, with new jobs in electrical component manufacturing and infrastructure construction offering higher average wages than the jobs they replace.

• Medium- and heavy-duty (M/HD) vehicles in Southern New England are responsible for a disproportionate amount of pollution; despite comprising only 6 percent of the on-road fleet, they emit approximately 22 percent of all greenhouse gases (GHG), 48 percent of nitrogen oxide (NOx), and 41 percent of particulate matter (PM) from on-road vehicles.
• Under the least aggressive policy scenario (ACT Rule), cumulative net societal benefits in Southern New England are estimated at almost $12.1 billion through 2050, including 113 fewer premature deaths and 113 fewer hospital visits.
• The most aggressive scenario (100 x 40 ZEV + Clean Grid) projects cumulative net societal benefits exceeding $23.4 billion through 2050, with 333 fewer premature deaths and 334 fewer hospital visits.
• The transition to ZEVs is projected to result in lifetime cost parity with combustion vehicles by 2035, with the average ZEV purchased in 2040 expected to produce nearly $10,000 in discounted lifetime net savings.
• Increased electricity sales from M/HD EV charging could lower distribution rates for other customers; under the 100 x 40 ZEV scenario, average residential and commercial electricity rates in Southern New England could decrease by up to 2.4% by 2050.
• The ZEV transition is expected to have positive national macroeconomic effects; under the most aggressive scenario, net national job gains are estimated at 1,537 in 2035, with a $418 million increase in 2035 GDP and a $592 million increase in 2040 GDP.
• New jobs created by the ZEV transition, primarily in electrical component manufacturing and charging infrastructure construction, are expected to have average wages more than twice as high as the jobs they replace, such as vehicle repair and gas station retail.
• Significant infrastructure investment is required to support the transition; under the 100 x 40 ZEV scenario, cumulative investment by 2050 is projected at $2.606 billion for depot chargers and $1.799 billion for public chargers.

APA

Seamonds, D., Robo, E., Freeman, M., Saha, A., & MacNair, D. (2021). An Analysis of the Impacts of Zero-Emission Medium-and Heavy-Duty Trucks on the Environment, Public Health, Industry, and the Economy. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2022-01/southern-ne-clean-trucks-report.pdf

Chicago

Seamonds, David, Ellen Robo, Miranda Freeman, Amlan Saha, and Doug MacNair. An Analysis of the Impacts of Zero-Emission Medium-and Heavy-Duty Trucks on the Environment, Public Health, Industry, and the Economy. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2021. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2022-01/southern-ne-clean-trucks-report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Seamonds |first1=David |last2=Robo |first2=Ellen |last3=Freeman |first3=Miranda |last4=Saha |first4=Amlan |last5=MacNair |first5=Doug |title=An Analysis of the Impacts of Zero-Emission Medium-and Heavy-Duty Trucks on the Environment, Public Health, Industry, and the Economy |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=2021 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2022-01/southern-ne-clean-trucks-report.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{seamonds2021analysis, author = {Seamonds, David and Robo, Ellen and Freeman, Miranda and Saha, Amlan and MacNair, Doug}, title = {{An Analysis of the Impacts of Zero-Emission Medium-and Heavy-Duty Trucks on the Environment, Public Health, Industry, and the Economy}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2021}, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2022-01/southern-ne-clean-trucks-report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }