Overwhelming Risk

The report examines the systemic failure of the U.S. coastal insurance market, specifically the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which provides subsidized rates that encourage risky development and create massive taxpayer liability. It highlights how climate change—manifesting as sea level rise and stronger hurricanes—is exacerbating these risks, particularly along the East and Gulf Coasts. The author advocates for the full implementation of the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act of 2012 and further measures, such as incorporating sea level rise projections into FEMA flood maps and providing targeted support for low-income homeowners.

• The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is the primary provider of flood insurance in the U.S. but is financially unstable, with over $20 billion in debt to the U.S. Treasury as of November 2012.
• Subsidized insurance rates create perverse incentives by masking true risks, which encourages continued development in high-risk coastal areas and ecologically sensitive zones like wetlands and barrier islands.
• Climate change is significantly increasing coastal risks; global sea levels are projected to rise between eight inches and 6.6 feet above 1992 levels by 2100, with the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts experiencing rates higher than the global average.
• A small percentage of properties cause a disproportionate amount of financial loss; repetitive-loss properties make up only 1.3% of all policies but are expected to account for 15% to 20% of future losses.
• FEMA's current flood insurance rate maps (FIRMs) are inadequate for long-term planning because they do not incorporate scientific projections of future sea level rise or long-term erosion.
• The Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act of 2012 aims to address NFIP shortcomings by increasing rates to reflect true risk, phasing out certain subsidies, and establishing a Technical Mapping Advisory Council.
• State-subsidized wind insurance markets, such as FAIR Plans and Beach and Windstorm Plans, have seen a massive increase in exposure to loss, growing from $55 billion in 1990 to $885 billion in 2011.
• Insurance reform may disproportionately impact low-income homeowners, who are often the hardest hit by storms and may be forced to forego coverage if premiums rise rapidly without assistance.
• The Community Rating System (CRS) is an underutilized tool that allows communities to lower NFIP premiums through risk-reduction investments; only about 6% of communities with NFIP policies participate.

APA

Cleetus, R. (2014). Overwhelming Risk. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/Overwhelming-Risk-Full-Report.pdf

Chicago

Cleetus, Rachel. Overwhelming Risk. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2014. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/Overwhelming-Risk-Full-Report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cleetus |first1=Rachel |title=Overwhelming Risk |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=February 2014 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/Overwhelming-Risk-Full-Report.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cleetus2014overwhelming, author = {Cleetus, Rachel}, title = {{Overwhelming Risk}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2014}, month = feb, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/Overwhelming-Risk-Full-Report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }