Low-Carbon Pathways for Transportation

The Union of Concerned Scientists finds that the United States can achieve a 98 percent reduction in transportation emissions by 2050 through rapid vehicle electrification, strengthened efficiency standards, and a transition to renewable electricity. The proposed 'Core scenario' involves ending sales of passenger cars and light trucks by 2035 and medium- and heavy-duty trucks by 2040, reducing liquid fuel use by 84 percent by midcentury. These pathways are deemed economically viable, with net energy costs estimated at less than 1 percent of GDP. The report emphasizes that this transition must be coupled with a power grid shift to 97 percent zero-carbon sources by 2050 and a focus on environmental justice for overburdened communities.

• The United States can achieve a near-total decarbonization of its transportation sector by 2050, with a 98 percent reduction in emissions from 2020 levels under the 'Core scenario'. This is achievable using existing technology without the need for novel inventions.
• To meet these targets, the US must phase out the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles: passenger cars and light trucks by 2035, and medium- and heavy-duty trucks by 2040. This would result in a 59 percent cut in the use of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel by 2040, increasing to 84 percent by 2050.
• The transition to electric vehicles will significantly increase power grid demand, requiring the share of zero-carbon electricity sources to grow from 38 percent in 2020 to 97 percent by 2050. Electricity's share of the economy used for powering electric vehicles is projected to rise from less than 0.1 percent in 2020 to approximately 25 percent in 2050.
• The proposed pathways are economically viable, with total net energy needs in the economy costing less than 1 percent of GDP. Under the Core scenario, annual net costs are estimated at $45 billion by 2030 and $155 billion by 2050, with $830 billion in midcentury investments largely offset by $675 billion in fossil fuel savings.
• Hard-to-decarbonize sectors, including aviation, shipping, and some heavy-duty road transport, will still rely on liquid fuels in 2050, with jet fuel making up two-thirds of that remainder. These emissions should be mitigated using sustainable biofuels, synthetic fuels, and low- and zero-emissions hydrogen.
• A 'Low Energy Demand' scenario demonstrates that climate targets can be met with lower infrastructure investment by reducing the demand for energy services through behavioral shifts, such as increased walking, biking, and public transit. This scenario reduces electricity generation by 34 percent, hydrogen use by 30 percent, and liquid fuel use by 8 percent by 2050 compared to the Core scenario.
• Carbon neutrality by 2050 will require a limited amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, specifically bioenergy carbon capture and storage and some direct air capture, to offset remaining emissions.

APA

de Moura, M. C. P. (2022). Low-Carbon Pathways for Transportation. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2022-09/low-carbon-pathways-for-transportation-exec-summary.pdf

Chicago

de Moura, Maria Cecilia Pinto. Low-Carbon Pathways for Transportation. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2022. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2022-09/low-carbon-pathways-for-transportation-exec-summary.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=de Moura |first1=Maria Cecilia Pinto |title=Low-Carbon Pathways for Transportation |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=September 2022 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2022-09/low-carbon-pathways-for-transportation-exec-summary.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{demoura2022lowcarbon, author = {de Moura, Maria Cecilia Pinto}, title = {{Low-Carbon Pathways for Transportation}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2022}, month = sep, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2022-09/low-carbon-pathways-for-transportation-exec-summary.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }