Looming Deadlines for Coastal Resilience

The document details the technical approach for mapping disruptive flooding and its impact on critical infrastructure across US territories. It describes the use of NOAA tide gauge data, digital elevation models, and three sea level rise scenarios (low, medium, and high) to project inundation. The analysis overlays these flood maps with datasets covering housing, education, industrial sites, energy, government, and health facilities, while incorporating socioeconomic data from the White House Council on Environmental Quality to assess impacts on disadvantaged communities.

• The analysis identifies disruptive flooding water levels based on heights reached or exceeded an average of 2, 12, or 26 times per year, using 20 years of hourly water-level data (2001–2020) from 119 NOAA tide gauges.
• The study utilizes three sea level rise scenarios—low, medium, and high—which are calibrated to project global sea level rise of 1.6, 3.2, and 6.5 feet, respectively, by the year 2100.
• Critical infrastructure was categorized into six broad groups: public and affordable housing, educational institutions, industrial contamination sites, energy infrastructure, government facilities, and public safety and health facilities.
• Certain infrastructure types were excluded from the analysis due to data limitations: underground spaces (due to surface-only elevation models), roads (due to segmentation challenges), drinking water treatment plants (lack of standardized national data), and bridges (due to elevation and foundation uncertainties).
• The analysis assumes that existing federal levees and FEMA-recognized protective structures will remain effective through 2100, meaning areas protected by these are excluded from the flooding maps.
• The study uses the White House Council on Environmental Quality’s screening tool to analyze the exposure of disadvantaged communities, though it acknowledges the tool does not consider race as a factor.
• The researchers excluded Alaska, Hawaii, and American Samoa from the analysis due to a lack of high-resolution digital elevation models or incompatible water-level data.

APA

Dahl, K., Declet-Barreto, J., Cleetus, R., Spanger, E., Vitale, B., Udvardy, S., Thompson, P., Worth, P., & Caldas, A. (2024). Looming Deadlines for Coastal Resilience. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2024-06/looming%20deadlines_methodology.pdf

Chicago

Dahl, Kristina, Juan Declet-Barreto, Rachel Cleetus, Erika Spanger, Benjamin Vitale, Shana Udvardy, Philip Thompson, Pamela Worth, and Astrid Caldas. Looming Deadlines for Coastal Resilience. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2024. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2024-06/looming%20deadlines_methodology.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Dahl |first1=Kristina |last2=Declet-Barreto |first2=Juan |last3=Cleetus |first3=Rachel |last4=Spanger |first4=Erika |last5=Vitale |first5=Benjamin |last6=Udvardy |first6=Shana |last7=Thompson |first7=Philip |last8=Worth |first8=Pamela |last9=Caldas |first9=Astrid |title=Looming Deadlines for Coastal Resilience |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=June 2024 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2024-06/looming%20deadlines_methodology.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{dahl2024looming, author = {Dahl, Kristina and Declet-Barreto, Juan and Cleetus, Rachel and Spanger, Erika and Vitale, Benjamin and Udvardy, Shana and Thompson, Philip and Worth, Pamela and Caldas, Astrid}, title = {{Looming Deadlines for Coastal Resilience}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2024}, month = jun, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2024-06/looming%20deadlines_methodology.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }