Confronting Climate Change in the Gulf Coast Region

The report analyzes the vulnerability of the Gulf Coast's diverse ecosystems—from upland forests to coral reefs—to rising temperatures and sea levels. It highlights that while climate change poses significant threats to water resources, biodiversity, and public health, current human activities like shoreline development and water engineering remain the primary drivers of ecological change. The authors advocate for a three-pronged strategy of mitigation, minimization of human impacts, and adaptive management to safeguard the region's economic and natural heritage.

• Climate models project significant temperature increases for the Gulf Coast by 2100, with summer maximums rising between 3 and 7°F and winter minimums warming by 5 to 10°F, leading to a dramatic increase in the July heat index.
• Relative sea-level rise is expected to be more severe than the global average due to regional land subsidence, with projections ranging from 15 inches for most of the coast to as much as 44 inches in the Louisiana/Mississippi Delta over the next century.
• There is significant uncertainty regarding future precipitation; however, both the Hadley and Canadian climate models project a tendency toward lower rainfall for most immediate coastal areas, except for parts of the Texas coast.
• Human activities, including population growth, water engineering, and shoreline development, are currently the most significant drivers of ecosystem change in the region, magnifying the risks posed by climate change.
• Rising sea levels and increased groundwater withdrawal threaten coastal aquifers with saltwater intrusion, particularly in urban areas like Houston and Tampa and in the Mississippi River supplies for New Orleans.
• Climate change is expected to shift species ranges northward and facilitate the invasion of non-native tropical species, such as the Chinese tallow tree, which threatens forests and grasslands in East Texas, South Texas, and South Florida.
• The Gulf of Mexico's 'dead zone' (hypoxic waters) could expand if climate change leads to a projected 20 percent increase in freshwater discharge from the Mississippi River watershed.
• Warmer temperatures and milder winters are likely to increase the incidence of agricultural and forestry pests, specifically the Southern Pine bark beetle.
• Public health risks are projected to rise, including a potential doubling of heat-related deaths in cities like Dallas and Houston with a 3°F warming of summer temperatures, and increased ground-level ozone in the Houston-Galveston area.
• Coastal wetlands in Louisiana are disappearing at an average rate of 25 square miles per year, a process expected to continue for 20 years and potentially accelerate later in the 21st century as sea-level rise increases.
• Coral reefs off the South Florida coast are highly vulnerable to rising ocean temperatures, as they already exist near their maximum thermal tolerance and face heat stress during El Niño events.
• The report recommends a strategy of 'adaptive management'—using flexible, learning-oriented approaches—to address uncertainties in water resource management, agriculture, forestry, and coastal planning.

APA

Twilley, R. R., Barron, E. J., Gholz, H. L., Harwell, M. A., Miller, R. L., Reed, D. J., Rose, J. B., Siemann, E. H., Wetzel, R. G., & Zimmerman, R. J. (2001). Confronting Climate Change in the Gulf Coast Region. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/gulfcoastdownload.pdf

Chicago

Twilley, Robert R., Eric J. Barron, Henry L. Gholz, Mark A. Harwell, Richard L. Miller, Denise J. Reed, Joan B. Rose, et al. Confronting Climate Change in the Gulf Coast Region. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2001. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/gulfcoastdownload.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{twilley2001confronting, author = {Twilley, Robert R. and Barron, Eric J. and Gholz, Henry L. and Harwell, Mark A. and Miller, Richard L. and Reed, Denise J. and Rose, Joan B. and Siemann, Evan H. and Wetzel, Robert G. and Zimmerman, Roger J.}, title = {{Confronting Climate Change in the Gulf Coast Region}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2001}, month = oct, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/gulfcoastdownload.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }