Decision Support Methods for Climate Change Adaption

The document evaluates a variety of decision support methods for climate change adaptation, categorising them into traditional tools (CBA, CEA, MCA) and those specifically designed for decision-making under uncertainty (ROA, RDM, PA, Adaptive Management, AHP). It highlights that while traditional tools are well-known, they often struggle with the deep uncertainties of climate projections. The brief details the strengths and weaknesses of each method, provides a diagnostic framework for matching tools to specific adaptation challenges, and lists case study applications across various sectors and geographies, including the UK, Finland, Spain, and Italy.

• Traditional decision support tools like Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) have limited capacity to address the complex uncertainties associated with climate change, often relying on central tendencies or probabilistic risks.
• Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) is highly flexible for adaptation because it can combine quantitative and qualitative data, allowing for the inclusion of criteria like robustness and low-regret characteristics, though it can be subjective.
• Real Options Analysis (ROA) is particularly effective for large, irreversible capital investments, such as coastal protection or water storage, as it quantifies the economic value of flexibility and learning over time.
• Robust Decision Making (RDM) is recommended for situations of 'deep uncertainty' where probabilistic data is missing, as it seeks strategies that are 'good enough' to minimize regret across many plausible futures.
• Portfolio Analysis (PA) allows decision-makers to diversify adaptation options to spread risk, ensuring effectiveness across a range of projected climates rather than relying on a single optimal solution for one scenario.
• Adaptive Management and 'Adaptation Pathways' avoid irreversible decisions by using a cycle of monitoring, research, and learning to adjust plans as risk thresholds are reached.
• Social Network Analysis (SNA) is a critical complementary tool for assessing adaptive capacity by mapping the socio-institutional relationships, information flows, and power dynamics between actors.

APA

P., W., & A., H. (2013). Decision Support Methods for Climate Change Adaption. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-mediation-briefing1-method-overview.pdf

Chicago

P., Watkiss,, and Hunt, A. Decision Support Methods for Climate Change Adaption. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2013. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-mediation-briefing1-method-overview.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=P. |first1=Watkiss, |last2=A. |first2=Hunt, |title=Decision Support Methods for Climate Change Adaption |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=May 2013 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-mediation-briefing1-method-overview.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{p2013decision, author = {P., Watkiss, and A., Hunt,}, title = {{Decision Support Methods for Climate Change Adaption}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2013}, month = may, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-mediation-briefing1-method-overview.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }