Food System Scenarios: Exploring Global/Local Linkages

This research paper explores methodologies for linking global food system scenarios with local food security and livelihood dynamics. Using case studies from India and South Africa, the authors demonstrate how top-down global scenarios (such as those from the Global Scenario Group) can be downscaled to national and provincial levels, while proposing a bottom-up approach that uses livelihood systems as an intermediate scale to better capture local vulnerability and adaptive capacity.

• Existing global food system scenarios often focus on supply and demand issues, failing to adequately address livelihood security, local capacity, and the multi-dimensional nature of food insecurity.
• The authors propose using 'livelihood systems' as an intermediate scale to bridge the gap between global drivers and local vulnerability. Livelihoods are defined as the combined activities and social and physical assets that support a household's existence.
• In a downscaling exercise for India, the authors used 12 indicators across food availability, access, and absorption to map rural food insecurity. Projections for 2025 suggest that food security would improve across all four Global Scenario Group (GSG) scenarios compared to the base case, with the 'Great Transitions' scenario showing the most improvement.
• For South Africa, the authors applied a food security framework consisting of four categories: food access, food availability, reliability of food, and food distribution. Results indicate that the 'Great Transition' scenario leads to dramatic increases in food security by 2050 compared to the 'Market Forces' scenario.
• The paper argues that global scenarios can be misleading when applied to local dynamics because they often ignore residual pockets of vulnerability. For example, while global indicators might show improvement, specific livelihoods (like artisanal fishing or rainfed maize farming) may become more vulnerable under a 'Market Forces' scenario due to commercial dominance.
• The authors advocate for a participatory, bottom-up approach to scenario building. This involves mapping the exposure of specific livelihood typologies (e.g., nomadic pastoralists, women-headed households) to global stressors and identifying the specific pathways and decision-making processes that lead to vulnerability or adaptation.

APA

Downing, T. E., & Ziervogel, G. (2005). Food System Scenarios: Exploring Global/Local Linkages. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Risk-livelihoods/SEI_Downing_Food_scenarios_2005.pdf

Chicago

Downing, Thomas E., and Gina Ziervogel. Food System Scenarios: Exploring Global/Local Linkages. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2005. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Risk-livelihoods/SEI_Downing_Food_scenarios_2005.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Downing |first1=Thomas E. |last2=Ziervogel |first2=Gina |title=Food System Scenarios: Exploring Global/Local Linkages |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=February 2005 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Risk-livelihoods/SEI_Downing_Food_scenarios_2005.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{downing2005food, author = {Downing, Thomas E. and Ziervogel, Gina}, title = {{Food System Scenarios: Exploring Global/Local Linkages}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2005}, month = feb, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Risk-livelihoods/SEI_Downing_Food_scenarios_2005.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }