Food System Scenarios: Exploring Global/Local Linkages

The document argues that existing 'top-down' global food system scenarios often fail to capture the multi-scale nature of vulnerability and the specific dynamics of local livelihoods. To bridge this gap, the authors propose using 'livelihood systems' as an intermediate scale to link global drivers—such as climate change and market forces—to local food security outcomes. The paper demonstrates this approach through case studies in India and South Africa, using data from the Global Scenario Group's PoleStar system and national food security frameworks. It concludes that a 'bottom-up' participatory approach, which maps the exposure of specific livelihood groups (e.g., nomadic pastoralists or smallholder farmers) to various stressors, provides a more realistic basis for adaptation and policy intervention than aggregated global projections.

• Existing global food system scenarios often lack sensitivity to socio-economic vulnerability and adaptive capacity, frequently focusing on supply and demand rather than livelihood security.
• The authors propose 'livelihood systems' as a critical intermediate scale to link global drivers with local conditions of vulnerability, as these systems can describe cross-boundary geographical areas or agro-ecological zones.
• In the India case study, the authors used a baseline from the MS Swaminathan Research Foundation to map rural food insecurity across three dimensions: food availability, food access, and food absorption.
• Downscaling Global Scenario Group (GSG) scenarios for India to 2025 suggests that while food security would improve across all four explored scenarios compared to the base case, the level of improvement varies significantly for indicators like poverty, illiteracy, and electricity.
• The South Africa case study utilized a framework from the National Department of Agriculture, identifying that food security varies by province, with HIV infection rates exceeding 30% in three provinces.
• Comparing the 'Market Forces' and 'Great Transitions' scenarios for South Africa shows that the latter leads to dramatic increases in food security by 2050, whereas the former represents a predominant mode of development with less improvement.
• A 'bottom-up' participatory approach to local scenarios involves mapping the exposure of specific livelihood typologiessuch as nomadic pastoralists, smallholder farmers, or fishing communitiesto global stressors.
• The authors argue that the IPCC SRES scenarios are unsuitable for sustainability or vulnerability studies because they assume developing countries will become wealthier than current OECD averages by the 2050s-2080s, which underestimates climate impacts.
• The paper suggests that future scenario development should move toward dynamic, agent-based behavioral simulations rather than static snapshots to better represent realistic adaptation processes.

APA

Downing, T. E., & Ziervogel, G. (2005). Food System Scenarios: Exploring Global/Local Linkages. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Risk-livelihoods/SEI_Downing_Food_scenarios_2005.pdf

Chicago

Downing, Thomas E., and Gina Ziervogel. Food System Scenarios: Exploring Global/Local Linkages. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2005. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Risk-livelihoods/SEI_Downing_Food_scenarios_2005.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Downing |first1=Thomas E. |last2=Ziervogel |first2=Gina |title=Food System Scenarios: Exploring Global/Local Linkages |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=February 2005 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Risk-livelihoods/SEI_Downing_Food_scenarios_2005.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{downing2005food, author = {Downing, Thomas E. and Ziervogel, Gina}, title = {{Food System Scenarios: Exploring Global/Local Linkages}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2005}, month = feb, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Risk-livelihoods/SEI_Downing_Food_scenarios_2005.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }