Preview of results from a book on valuing the oceans and the economic consequences of action or inaction

This executive summary previews a forthcoming book on the economic valuation of ocean services and the consequences of global environmental change. It identifies six primary threats to the ocean—acidification, warming, hypoxia, sea level rise, pollution, and overuse of resources—and argues that these stressors often interact synergistically, accelerating ecosystem degradation. The document advocates for a shift from traditional cost-benefit analysis to insurance-based risk models to account for catastrophic tipping points and recommends the appointment of a UN High Commissioner for Oceans to coordinate global governance.

• The ocean is subject to six primary interconnected threats: ocean acidification, ocean warming, hypoxia (deoxygenation), sea level rise, pollution, and the overuse of marine resources.
• Ocean acidification, driven by CO2 emissions, has seen mean surface acidity increase by 30 percent since the industrial revolution. If current emission rates continue, acidity could increase by 150-200 percent by 2100, a rate of change approximately 10 times faster than any event in the last 65 million years.
• Ocean warming has led to an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones; the proportion of the strongest storms (category 4 and 5) rose from under 20 percent in 1970–1974 to approximately 35 percent in 2000–2004.
• Hypoxia is accelerating rapidly, with over 500 known 'dead zones' globally. Under a business-as-usual scenario, the amount of reactive nitrogen entering the ocean is projected to increase by 50 percent by 2050, which will increase the duration, intensity, and frequency of coastal hypoxia.
• Global mean sea level has risen by about 25cm since the 1800s. Projections for 2100 range from 0.2 metres to 2 metres, posing an existential threat to some small island developing states (SIDS). Adaptation costs for a 2 metre rise are estimated to reach USD 270 billion per year by 2100, compared to USD 25 billion per year for a 0.5 metre rise.
• Marine capture fisheries are in a severely troubled state, with the FAO estimating that 85 percent of fish stocks are depleted, over-exploited, fully exploited, or recovering from depletion. Illegal and unreported fishing is estimated to cost the sector USD 50 billion annually.
• The economic cost of damage to the ocean under a high-emission pathway is estimated to reach USD 1,980 billion by 2100 (0.37 percent of global GDP). The avoidable damage—the difference between high and low emission scenarios—is estimated to be over a trillion dollars per year by 2100 (0.25 percent of GDP).
• Multiple stressors often act synergistically, meaning their combined impact is greater than the sum of individual threats. The risk of such synergistic responses is shown to double when three or more stressors intersect.

APA

Noone, K., Sumaila, R., & Díaz, R. J. (n.d.). Preview of results from a book on valuing the oceans and the economic consequences of action or inaction. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Preview-ValuingTheOcean-DraftExecutiveSummary.pdf

Chicago

Noone, Kevin, Rashid Sumaila, and Robert J Díaz. Preview of results from a book on valuing the oceans and the economic consequences of action or inaction. Stockholm Environment Institute, n.d. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Preview-ValuingTheOcean-DraftExecutiveSummary.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Noone |first1=Kevin |last2=Sumaila |first2=Rashid |last3=Díaz |first3=Robert J |title=Preview of results from a book on valuing the oceans and the economic consequences of action or inaction |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Preview-ValuingTheOcean-DraftExecutiveSummary.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{noonendpreview, author = {Noone, Kevin and Sumaila, Rashid and Díaz, Robert J}, title = {{Preview of results from a book on valuing the oceans and the economic consequences of action or inaction}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Preview-ValuingTheOcean-DraftExecutiveSummary.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }