Co-producing climate information for Windhoek decision making

This research paper describes the co-production of Climate Risk Narratives (CRNs) for Windhoek, Namibia, as part of the FRACTAL project. These narratives translate complex climate projections into non-technical, plausible future scenarios to help city decision-makers integrate climate risks into urban planning and policy, specifically influencing the city's Integrated Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (ICCSAP).

• The FRACTAL project developed Climate Risk Narratives (CRNs) as 'boundary objects' to bridge the gap between climate science and urban decision-making. These narratives translate diverse and sometimes contradictory scientific evidence into non-technical language, using multiple 'pathways' to communicate uncertainty regarding future climate conditions.
• Three plausible climate scenarios for Windhoek in the 2040s were co-produced: (1) a 'much hotter' scenario with temperatures rising over 2ºC and annual rainfall decreasing by one-third; (2) a 'hotter' scenario with 50% more very hot days (above 35°C) and rainfall occurring later in the season; and (3) a 'warmer' scenario with a temperature increase of 1-1.5ºC and similar total annual rainfall but with more intense events.
• Climate projections for Namibia show consistent trends toward increased temperatures by the end of the century. While rainfall projections are more uncertain, downscaled regional climate model data indicates a stronger tendency toward drier conditions, particularly later in the century.
• The CRNs identify critical sector-specific risks for Windhoek, including increased evaporation in reservoirs and dams affecting water security, higher demand for air conditioning, and increased heat-related health issues. Scenarios with intense rainfall (Narratives 2 and 3) specifically highlight risks of flooding in informal settlements and disruptions to transport infrastructure.
• The co-production process demonstrated that scientific thresholds may not always align with operational needs. For example, while scientists analyzed days exceeding 30°C, a city engineer identified 40°C as the critical threshold affecting the structural integrity of manhole covers.
• The CRNs were used to inform the City of Windhoek's Integrated Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (ICCSAP) and were shared with high-level officials, including the City's CEO and Strategic Executives, to prompt discussions on adaptation options and resilience.

APA

Janes, T., Taylor, A., & Bharwani, S. (2020). Co-producing climate information for Windhoek decision making. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/janes-et-al-windhoek-climate-information-for-decision-making-1.pdf

Chicago

Janes, Tamara, Anna Taylor, and Sukaina Bharwani. Co-producing climate information for Windhoek decision making. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2020. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/janes-et-al-windhoek-climate-information-for-decision-making-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Janes |first1=Tamara |last2=Taylor |first2=Anna |last3=Bharwani |first3=Sukaina |title=Co-producing climate information for Windhoek decision making |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=October 2020 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/janes-et-al-windhoek-climate-information-for-decision-making-1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{janes2020coproducing, author = {Janes, Tamara and Taylor, Anna and Bharwani, Sukaina}, title = {{Co-producing climate information for Windhoek decision making}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2020}, month = oct, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/janes-et-al-windhoek-climate-information-for-decision-making-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }