PEN 2022 -2052 _TOMO 2.docx

This report, published by the Stockholm Environment Institute in March 2024, provides a comprehensive long-term energy planning framework for Colombia from 2022 to 2052. It outlines the evolution of National Energy Plans (PEN), analyzes the current public policy landscape, and models five distinct energy scenarios: Actualización, Modernización, Inflexión, Innovación, and Transición Energética. The document details the technical and economic assumptions for energy demand and supply across the residential, tertiary, industrial, and transport sectors, while evaluating the role of strategic minerals and the cost-benefit ratios of various energy efficiency and substitution measures.

• Colombia's population is projected to reach approximately 62.3 million inhabitants by 2052, with an average annual growth rate of 0.6% between 2022 and 2052.
• The 'Innovación' scenario projects a significant shift toward renewables, where non-conventional renewable energy sources (FNCER) account for 60% of energy production by 2052, while oil and derivatives drop to 4%.
• In the 'Actualización' scenario, the national energy matrix for 2052 is expected to be led by FNCER at 51.8%, followed by hydro-generation at 30.1% and natural gas at 11.2%.
• The report identifies a high potential for energy efficiency in Colombia, estimating a potential reduction in energy consumption of 1,688 PJ for the 2022-2030 period, representing 10% of aggregate consumption.
• The 'Transición Energética' scenario envisions a massive expansion of wind power, aiming for a total capacity of 30,000 MW for onshore wind and 32,000 MW for solar photovoltaic energy.
• The report highlights the strategic importance of copper, nickel, and phosphate rock, noting that Colombia is the 5th largest producer of phosphates in the Americas.
• The 'Innovación' scenario for the industrial sector projects that hydrogen could reach a 9% share of total energy consumption in thermal processes.
• Cost-benefit analysis for the residential sector shows that lighting measures (LED substitution) provide the highest total benefit-cost ratio, reaching up to 5.7 in the 'Modernización' scenario.
• The report notes that the 'Inflexión' and 'Innovación' scenarios for transport are cost-beneficial, with the 'Innovación' scenario showing a total B/C ratio of 2.32.
• In the 'Actualización' scenario, the production of thermal coal is expected to decrease significantly by 2052 to 821 PJ due to international decarbonization strategies.
• The report proposes the introduction of nuclear energy starting in 2038 in the 'Actualización', 'Modernización', 'Inflexión', and 'Innovación' scenarios to ensure firm energy.
• The 'Innovación' scenario for hydrogen production targets a capacity of 14.14 GW by 2050.
• The report identifies 17 strategic minerals via Resolution 1006 of November 30, 2023, including copper, nickel, zinc, and metallurgical coal.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2024). PEN 2022 -2052 _TOMO 2.docx. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/Colombia_PEN2022_Vol2.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. PEN 2022 -2052 _TOMO 2.docx. 2024. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/Colombia_PEN2022_Vol2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=PEN 2022 -2052 _TOMO 2.docx |date=March 2024 |url=https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/Colombia_PEN2022_Vol2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2024pen, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{PEN 2022 -2052 \_TOMO 2.docx}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2024}, month = mar, url = {https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/Colombia_PEN2022_Vol2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }