PEN 2022 -2052 _TOMO 2.docx

The report outlines Colombia's energy transition pathways through 2052, evaluating five scenarios: Actualization, Modernization, Inflexion, Innovation, and Energy Transition (TE). It details the shift from coal and hydrocarbons toward non-conventional renewable energy sources (FNCER), including solar, wind, and hydrogen. The analysis covers demand-side efficiency in residential, industrial, and transport sectors, as well as the strategic role of critical minerals like copper and nickel. Economic evaluations using benefit-cost ratios indicate that while residential and tertiary efficiency measures are highly beneficial, industrial transformation requires significant capital investment and state support due to high private costs.

• Colombia's energy transition is modeled across several scenarios, with the 'Innovation' and 'Energy Transition' scenarios showing the most aggressive shifts toward renewables. In the Innovation scenario, FNCER are projected to account for 60% of energy production by 2052, while petroleum and derivatives drop to 4%.
• The transport sector is a primary target for decarbonization, with projections for a massive shift toward electrification. By 2052, the percentage of electric vehicles in the light vehicle stock is projected to range from 20.09% in the Actualization scenario to 94% in the Energy Transition (Lower Limit) scenario.
• Hydrogen is identified as a critical vector for hard-to-electrify sectors. The report projects a transition from 'grey' hydrogen (fossil-based without carbon capture) to 'blue' and 'green' hydrogen, with the Innovation scenario projecting a total hydrogen production of 390 PJ by 2052.
• The electricity matrix is expected to diversify significantly. In the Actualization scenario for 2052, FNCER will lead with 51.8%, followed by hydro-generation at 30.1% and natural gas at 11.2%.
• Critical minerals are essential for the transition. Copper is termed the 'metal of electrification,' and Colombia has identified potential in departments such as Antioquia, Cauca, Cesar, Chocó, Córdoba, La Guajira, Nariño, Tolima, and Santander.
• Nickel production in Colombia is concentrated in the department of Córdoba, specifically at the Cerro Matoso project, which is described as one of the largest and lowest-cost nickel extraction operations globally.
• Energy efficiency measures in the residential sector, particularly LED lighting and refrigeration upgrades, show high benefit-cost (B/C) ratios. For example, LED lighting in the Actualization scenario has a total B/C ratio of 5.5.
• Industrial transformation faces significant economic hurdles. The report finds that for none of the four scenarios is the total B/C ratio for the private industrial user greater than one, primarily due to high investment costs (CAPEX), which could reach 47 trillion COP in the Innovation scenario.
• The report emphasizes the need for 'Just Energy Transition' based on four principles: equity, gradualness, sovereignty and reliability, binding social participation, and knowledge-intensive transition.
• Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) is viewed as a necessary technology to allow the continued use of fossil fuels in specific applications while meeting neutrality goals. Colombia's potential for CO2 capture is estimated at 18 Mton CO2 per year.
• The residential sector's transition involves replacing firewood with LPG and electricity. In the Innovation scenario, firewood consumption is projected to be reduced to 24% by 2052, compared to 60% in the Actualization scenario.

APA

Morales, A. C., Flórez, C. A. C., Morillo, J. L., Martínez, J., Palma, M., Araque, T., de Arco, A. A., Andrade, F., González, O. G., Martínez, W. A., Silva, D. M., Quiroga, I. G., Rodríguez, C. D., Ramos, S. D., Chala, E. F., Serrato, D. A., Cárdenas, L., Corredor, M. F., & Peñaranda, D. (2024). PEN 2022 -2052 _TOMO 2.docx. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/Colombia_PEN2022_Vol2.pdf

Chicago

Morales, Andrés Camacho, Carlos Adrián Correa Flórez, José Lenin Morillo, Javier Martínez, Mauricio Palma, Tatiana Araque, Aida Amaris de Arco, et al. PEN 2022 -2052 _TOMO 2.docx. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2024. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/Colombia_PEN2022_Vol2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Morales |first1=Andrés Camacho |last2=Flórez |first2=Carlos Adrián Correa |last3=Morillo |first3=José Lenin |last4=Martínez |first4=Javier |last5=Palma |first5=Mauricio |last6=Araque |first6=Tatiana |last7=de Arco |first7=Aida Amaris |last8=Andrade |first8=Fernando |last9=González |first9=Olga González |display-authors=etal |title=PEN 2022 -2052 _TOMO 2.docx |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=March 2024 |url=https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/Colombia_PEN2022_Vol2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{morales2024pen, author = {Morales, Andrés Camacho and Flórez, Carlos Adrián Correa and Morillo, José Lenin and Martínez, Javier and Palma, Mauricio and Araque, Tatiana and de Arco, Aida Amaris and Andrade, Fernando and González, Olga González and Martínez, William Alberto and Silva, Diana Montaña and Quiroga, Ingrid Gissella and Rodríguez, Cristian David and Ramos, Sofía Delgado and Chala, Erika Flórez and Serrato, David Andrés and Cárdenas, Linda and Corredor, María Fernanda and Peñaranda, Diego}, title = {{PEN 2022 -2052 \_TOMO 2.docx}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2024}, month = mar, url = {https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/Colombia_PEN2022_Vol2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }