The effects of adaptation and mitigation on coastal flood impacts during the 21st century: an application of the DIVA and IMAGE models

This research paper evaluates the impact of mitigation and adaptation strategies on coastal flooding during the 21st century using the DIVA and IMAGE models, focusing on sea-level rise and dike maintenance.

• The study compares a mitigation scenario stabilizing concentrations at 450 ppm-CO2-eq, resulting in a global mean sea-level rise (GMSLR) of 42 cm between 1995 and 2100, against an unmitigated scenario resulting in 63 cm of GMSLR. Sensitivity scenarios were also tested with increased tropical cyclone activity and a GMSLR of 126 cm.
• In the unmitigated scenario without adaptation, 168 million people are flooded annually by 2100. Mitigation reduces this figure by a factor of 1.4, adaptation (defined as upgrading and maintaining dikes) reduces it by a factor of 461, and the combination of both reduces it by a factor of 540.
• Global annual flood costs, including dike upgrades, maintenance, and residual damage, reach USD 210 billion per year by 2100 in the unmitigated scenario without adaptation. Mitigation reduces these costs by a factor of 1.3, adaptation by a factor of 5.2, and combined efforts by a factor of 7.8. While global annual flood costs relative to GDP decrease from 0.06% to 0.01–0.03% with adaptation across all scenarios, some small island countries and less-wealthy nations may still face costs amounting to several percent of national GDP, where mitigation provides significant relief.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2012). The effects of adaptation and mitigation on coastal flood impacts during the 21st century: an application of the DIVA and IMAGE models. https://www.sei.org/publications/the-effects-of-adaptation-and-mitigation-on-coastal-flood-impacts-during-the-21st-century-an-application-of-the-diva-and-image-models/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. The effects of adaptation and mitigation on coastal flood impacts during the 21st century: an application of the DIVA and IMAGE models. 2012. https://www.sei.org/publications/the-effects-of-adaptation-and-mitigation-on-coastal-flood-impacts-during-the-21st-century-an-application-of-the-diva-and-image-models/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=The effects of adaptation and mitigation on coastal flood impacts during the 21st century: an application of the DIVA and IMAGE models |date=28 August 2012 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/the-effects-of-adaptation-and-mitigation-on-coastal-flood-impacts-during-the-21st-century-an-application-of-the-diva-and-image-models/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2012effects, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{The effects of adaptation and mitigation on coastal flood impacts during the 21st century: an application of the DIVA and IMAGE models}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2012}, month = aug, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/the-effects-of-adaptation-and-mitigation-on-coastal-flood-impacts-during-the-21st-century-an-application-of-the-diva-and-image-models/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }