Mapping the Future of China–Africa Relations: How the Continent can Benefit

The paper assesses the synergy between the AfCFTA and the BRI, arguing that targeted, structured cooperation—such as sector-specific preferential trade agreements and the strategic use of Special Economic Zones (SEZs)—is more beneficial for Africa than a status-quo ad hoc approach or a full continent-wide Free Trade Agreement (FTA). It highlights the potential for growth in manufacturing and agriculture while warning against the risks of increased Chinese imports and the complexities of rules of origin.

• The authors identify a significant overlap between the BRI and AfCFTA, noting that of the 36 African countries that ratified the AfCFTA, 29 are also signatories to the BRI.
• Current BRI projects in Africa are heavily skewed toward infrastructure, with transportation (38%), power and water (23%), and oil and gas (22%) being the top three sectors, while manufacturing accounts for only 9%.
• Under a 'business-as-usual' scenario, Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) stocks in Africa are projected to reach $100 billion by 2025, increasing from approximately $4 billion in 2019.
• Rules of origin (ROOs) present a critical challenge for the AfCFTA; strict ROOs may prevent the 'flooding' of markets with cheap Chinese goods but could also make it harder for African SMEs and least-developed countries to qualify for tariff preferences.
• Special Economic Zones (SEZs) are key mechanisms for Chinese investment, but the four national-level zones in Africa are currently dominated by Chinese firms and lack diversification, often concentrating on one or two industries.
• A sector-specific preferential trade framework, modeled after the US African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), is proposed to boost African exports to China in textiles, agriculture, and labour-intensive manufacturing while protecting nascent internal markets.
• The agricultural sector shows high potential for growth, with agribusiness predicted to be valued at $1 trillion by 2030, although Chinese FDI in this sector remained extremely small at 0.9% of total stocks by the end of 2019.
• A continent-wide FTA between China and the AfCFTA is deemed risky because it could lead to a surge in Chinese exports to Africa that is not offset by African exports, and its impacts would be highly non-uniform across different African nations.
• The authors conclude that targeted and structured cooperation (Options 2 and 3) serves Africa's interests best as they prioritize sustainable development in manufacturing and agriculture and complement the AfCFTA's goal of achieving economies of scale.

APA

FU, Y., & EGUEGU, O. (2021). Mapping the Future of China–Africa Relations: How the Continent can Benefit. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Occasional-Paper-333-fu-eguegu.pdf

Chicago

FU, YIKE, and OVIGWE EGUEGU. Mapping the Future of China–Africa Relations: How the Continent can Benefit. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2021. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Occasional-Paper-333-fu-eguegu.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=FU |first1=YIKE |last2=EGUEGU |first2=OVIGWE |title=Mapping the Future of China–Africa Relations: How the Continent can Benefit |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=October 2021 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Occasional-Paper-333-fu-eguegu.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{fu2021mapping, author = {FU, YIKE and EGUEGU, OVIGWE}, title = {{Mapping the Future of China–Africa Relations: How the Continent can Benefit}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2021}, month = oct, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Occasional-Paper-333-fu-eguegu.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }