Anticipatory Governance in SADC: Reducing Disaster Risk After COVID-19

The document argues for a shift toward anticipatory governance in SADC to manage 'wicked' problems like climate change and pandemics. It identifies systemic failures in the region's response to COVID-19 and cyclones, advocating for a holistic, cross-sectoral approach to disaster risk reduction (DRR) based on foresight, networked systems, and feedback loops.

• Anticipatory governance is defined as a system's ability to use data for future scenarios and harness collective intelligence to manage strategic risks. It consists of four basic components: a foresight system, a networked system for policy integration, a feedback system for performance management, and an open-minded institutional culture.
• The author introduces 'Auftragstaktik' as a fifth dimension of anticipatory governance. This German military decision-making process emphasizes leadership and trust, allowing lower-level managers to interpret strategic intent and act without fear of repercussion, which contrasts with the consensus-based culture common in Southern African countries.
• SADC's overall disaster risk increased between 2015 and 2018, driven by natural disasters such as protracted droughts, frequent cyclones, and El Niño. The Democratic Republic of Congo saw the most significant increase in risk, while Malawi saw the greatest reduction during this period.
• The region's response to COVID-19 revealed severe institutional gaps, including an inability to anticipate the hazard, inadequate decision-making, and a lack of cross-sectoral awareness within the SADC Secretariat due to the 'siloed nature of committees'.
• Lessons from Cyclones Idai and Kenneth in 2019 highlighted the value of cross-border meteorological cooperation for accurate forecasting and the importance of establishing trust between government bodies, civil society, and humanitarian stakeholders prior to a disaster.
• The author identifies three types of future risk trends for SADC: 'black elephants' (high-probability, high-impact events like extreme weather or food insecurity), 'black swans' (low-probability outliers like tectonic activity in the Somalia plate), and 'black jellyfish' (events perceived as normal that escalate rapidly, such as xenophobia or COVID-19).
• To achieve anticipatory governance, SADC needs to develop a multi-sectoral early-warning system capable of tracking multiple hazards and must legislate cross-border data and information sharing.
• The document recommends the urgent establishment of a resilience fund, as outlined in the SADC Regional Resilience Framework 2020–2030, to foster system-wide links rather than serving as a mere contingency measure.

APA

van Niekerk, D. (2021). Anticipatory Governance in SADC: Reducing Disaster Risk After COVID-19. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Occasional-Paper-321-van-Niekerk.pdf

Chicago

van Niekerk, Dewald. Anticipatory Governance in SADC: Reducing Disaster Risk After COVID-19. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2021. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Occasional-Paper-321-van-Niekerk.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=van Niekerk |first1=Dewald |title=Anticipatory Governance in SADC: Reducing Disaster Risk After COVID-19 |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=April 2021 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Occasional-Paper-321-van-Niekerk.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{vanniekerk2021anticipatory, author = {van Niekerk, Dewald}, title = {{Anticipatory Governance in SADC: Reducing Disaster Risk After COVID-19}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2021}, month = apr, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Occasional-Paper-321-van-Niekerk.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }