Green Hydrogen on an S-curve: Fast, Beneficial, and Inevitable

The briefing posits that green hydrogen is transitioning from pilot projects to the creation of niche markets (Phase 3 of the S-curve), which will lead to mass-market adoption as costs fall. It highlights scaling production, expanding demand in heavy industry, and the role of policy support in driving this acceleration.

• Green hydrogen is currently in Phase 3 of the innovation S-curve, moving from prototypes to the establishment of niche markets that link early supply and demand. This phase is characterized by increasing policy action, corporate commitments, and investments.
• Production is scaling rapidly, with current MW-scale plants giving way to a pipeline of gigawatt-scale projects. Some of the largest planned plants may reach capacities of 10–30 GW by 2030, with total deployment potentially reaching 1,000 GW by that year.
• The cost of producing green hydrogen is projected to decrease by 50–60 percent by 2030, making a price of US$2/kg without subsidies achievable within five years.
• Demand is expanding across several heavy industrial sectors with specific commercial targets: green ammonia plants for fertilizer (2023), hydrogen-based steelmaking (2024), green methanol and ammonia shipping (2025), and hydrogen-combustion aviation (technological readiness by 2025, commercial launch by 2035).
• The transition to green hydrogen presents significant financial opportunities: electrolyzer manufacturers could see $300–$400 billion in spending by 2030, renewables manufacturers up to $1.2 trillion, and infrastructure companies $160–$260 billion.

APA

RMI (2022). Green Hydrogen on an S-curve: Fast, Beneficial, and Inevitable. https://rmi.org/resources/green-hydrogen-fast-beneficial-and-inevitable/

Chicago

RMI. Green Hydrogen on an S-curve: Fast, Beneficial, and Inevitable. 2022. https://rmi.org/resources/green-hydrogen-fast-beneficial-and-inevitable/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=RMI |title=Green Hydrogen on an S-curve: Fast, Beneficial, and Inevitable |date=12 October 2022 |url=https://rmi.org/resources/green-hydrogen-fast-beneficial-and-inevitable/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rmi2022green, author = {{RMI}}, title = {{Green Hydrogen on an S-curve: Fast, Beneficial, and Inevitable}}, institution = {RMI}, year = {2022}, month = oct, url = {https://rmi.org/resources/green-hydrogen-fast-beneficial-and-inevitable/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }