Green Hydrogen on an S-curve: Fast, Beneficial, and Inevitable

This briefing by RMI argues that green hydrogen is entering a rapid growth phase known as an "S-curve," moving from pilot projects to the creation of new markets. The document outlines how decreasing renewable energy costs, increased policy action, and expanding industrial demand are driving the technology toward mass-market adoption, offering significant economic opportunities for first-movers across the value chain.

• Green hydrogen is currently in 'Phase 3' of its innovation S-curve, transitioning from laboratory prototypes and pilots to the establishment of niche markets that link supply and demand. This phase is characterized by increasing performance and declining costs, though the technology still carries a premium. The document suggests that this will lead to 'Phase 4,' where the technology reaches the mass market by outperforming incumbents in cost and performance.
• Production capacity is scaling rapidly, with current MW-scale plants giving way to a pipeline of gigawatt-scale projects. The largest plants are expected to reach capacities of 10–30 GW by 2030, and total deployment could potentially reach 1,000 GW by 2030. Consequently, the cost of producing green hydrogen is projected to decrease by 50–60 percent by 2030, making a price of US$2/kg without subsidies feasible within five years.
• Demand for green hydrogen is expanding across several industrial sectors through prototyping and piloting: fertilizer producers Yara and Unigel have begun constructing green ammonia plants for a 2023 launch; steel consortiums HYBRIT, H2 Green Steel, and COURSE50 target commercial production as early as 2024; Maersk and the NoGAPs project target 2025 for green methanol and ammonia-powered ships; and Airbus targets a 2035 commercial launch for hydrogen-combustion propulsion. Additionally, approximately 90 million tons of grey hydrogen used annually in refining and industry could be replaced immediately as capacity increases.
• The transition to green hydrogen presents massive investment opportunities by 2030: electrolyzer manufacturers could see $300–$400 billion in spending to reach 1,000 GW of capacity; renewables manufacturers could receive up to $1.2 trillion for the necessary solar and wind infrastructure; and engineering and construction firms could see $160–$260 billion for storage and distribution infrastructure.

APA

RMI (2022). Green Hydrogen on an S-curve: Fast, Beneficial, and Inevitable. https://rmi.org/resources/green-hydrogen-fast-beneficial-and-inevitable/

Chicago

RMI. Green Hydrogen on an S-curve: Fast, Beneficial, and Inevitable. 2022. https://rmi.org/resources/green-hydrogen-fast-beneficial-and-inevitable/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=RMI |title=Green Hydrogen on an S-curve: Fast, Beneficial, and Inevitable |date=12 October 2022 |url=https://rmi.org/resources/green-hydrogen-fast-beneficial-and-inevitable/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rmi2022green, author = {{RMI}}, title = {{Green Hydrogen on an S-curve: Fast, Beneficial, and Inevitable}}, institution = {RMI}, year = {2022}, month = oct, url = {https://rmi.org/resources/green-hydrogen-fast-beneficial-and-inevitable/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }