International Terrorism and the Clash of Civilizations

The research tests Samuel Huntington's 'clash of civilizations' hypothesis against a strategic theory of international terrorism using a directed country dyad sample from 1969 to 2005. The authors find that international terrorism is primarily driven by strategic logic—specifically, terror groups target foreign nationals from countries that provide economic aid, arms, or military support to the terrorists' home government. While the data shows excessive terrorism against Western targets, the authors argue this is due to the high strategic value of Western targets and Western interference in other regions, rather than an inherent civilizational clash. The study finds no evidence for a general structural break in terrorism patterns following the end of the Cold War, contradicting Huntington's predictions, although it notes an increase in lethal Islamic terrorism against the West coinciding with the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq.

• The study finds strong empirical support for a strategic theory of terrorism, where foreign political support for a home government increases terrorism against the supporting country's nationals.
• Terrorist activity is significantly higher when the target country provides economic aid, arms transfers, military alliances, or intervenes in civil wars on behalf of the terrorists' home government.
• The research contradicts Huntington's claim that the Islamic civilization is generally more prone to inter-civilizational terrorism than others when controlling for socio-political and geographical factors.
• While there is a high volume of terrorism directed at the West, the authors attribute this to the strategic value of Western targets and Western interference in Muslim countries rather than a civilizational clash.
• The analysis finds no evidence of a general structural break in international terrorism patterns triggered by the end of the Cold War, as Huntington predicted.
• An increase in lethal Islamic terrorism against the West was observed, but it correlates more strongly with the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq than with the end of the Cold War.
• The study notes that approximately 90 percent of all terrorism is domestic, meaning the perpetrators and victims share the same nationality.

APA

Neumayer, E., & Plümper, T. (2008). International Terrorism and the Clash of Civilizations. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/4b593a7d-4b6a-4a2a-a733-7628cf3fa121/International Terrorism and the Clash of Civilizations.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Neumayer, Eric, and Thomas Plümper. International Terrorism and the Clash of Civilizations. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2008. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/4b593a7d-4b6a-4a2a-a733-7628cf3fa121/International Terrorism and the Clash of Civilizations.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Neumayer |first1=Eric |last2=Plümper |first2=Thomas |title=International Terrorism and the Clash of Civilizations |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=March 2008 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/4b593a7d-4b6a-4a2a-a733-7628cf3fa121/International Terrorism and the Clash of Civilizations.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{neumayer2008international, author = {Neumayer, Eric and Plümper, Thomas}, title = {{International Terrorism and the Clash of Civilizations}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2008}, month = mar, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/4b593a7d-4b6a-4a2a-a733-7628cf3fa121/International Terrorism and the Clash of Civilizations.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }