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International Terrorism and the Clash of Civilizations
The research tests Samuel Huntington's 'clash of civilizations' hypothesis against a strategic theory of international terrorism using a directed country dyad sample from 1969 to 2005. The authors find that international terrorism is primarily driven by strategic logic—specifically, terror groups target foreign nationals from countries that provide economic aid, arms, or military support to the terrorists' home government. While the data shows excessive terrorism against Western targets, the authors argue this is due to the high strategic value of Western targets and Western interference in other regions, rather than an inherent civilizational clash. The study finds no evidence for a general structural break in terrorism patterns following the end of the Cold War, contradicting Huntington's predictions, although it notes an increase in lethal Islamic terrorism against the West coinciding with the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq.
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Document type: Research paper