Warming Projections Global Update

The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) reports that a wave of net zero pledges from 127 countries could reduce projected warming by 2100 to as low as 2.1°C. However, current policies still put the world on a trajectory of 2.9°C, and a significant emissions gap remains for 2030.

• The adoption of net zero targets by 127 countries, which account for approximately 63% of global emissions, could lower the projected global warming by 2100 to 2.1°C in an optimistic scenario.
• China's September 2020 announcement to reach carbon neutrality before 2060 is a major driver of reduced warming estimates, contributing a reduction of 0.2 to 0.3°C on its own.
• Real-world action based on current national policies has improved since 2015, with the projected warming for 2100 dropping from 3.6°C to 2.9°C, primarily due to increased renewable energy use and a decline in coal.
• Despite long-term net zero goals, there is a critical lack of updated 2030 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) from large emitters, leaving a substantial emissions gap to meet the 1.5°C limit.
• The 2.1°C optimistic projection remains above the 1.5°C goal because 37% of global emissions are from countries without net zero targets and the model does not assume significant net negative emissions after 2050.

APA

NewClimate Institute (2020). Warming Projections Global Update. https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/829/CAT_2020-12-01_Briefing_GlobalUpdate_Paris5Years_Dec2020.pdf

Chicago

NewClimate Institute. Warming Projections Global Update. 2020. https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/829/CAT_2020-12-01_Briefing_GlobalUpdate_Paris5Years_Dec2020.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=NewClimate Institute |title=Warming Projections Global Update |date=December 2020 |url=https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/829/CAT_2020-12-01_Briefing_GlobalUpdate_Paris5Years_Dec2020.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{newclimateinstitute2020warming, author = {{NewClimate Institute}}, title = {{Warming Projections Global Update}}, institution = {NewClimate Institute}, year = {2020}, month = dec, url = {https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/829/CAT_2020-12-01_Briefing_GlobalUpdate_Paris5Years_Dec2020.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }