Madagascar: Stumbling at the first hurdle?

The document details the 2001-2003 political crisis in Madagascar, triggered by a disputed presidential election between incumbent Didier Ratsiraka and challenger Marc Ravalomanana. It describes the resulting institutional collapse, the failure of multiple mediation attempts in Dakar, and the eventual consolidation of power by Ravalomanana despite initial resistance from the African Union.

• The political crisis was triggered by the disputed results of the first round of the presidential election on 16 December 2001, where Marc Ravalomanana challenged the incumbent Didier Ratsiraka.
• While Madagascar saw macro-economic growth of approximately 5% annually since 1999, this success did not reach rural populations, leaving about 70% of the 15 million people in poverty.
• Discrepancies in the first-round vote count led to massive protests in Antananarivo; official results showed Ravalomanana with 46.49% and Ratsiraka with 40.64%, while Ravalomanana's camp claimed 53.32% against 35.54%.
• Marc Ravalomanana declared himself president on 22 February 2002, an action condemned by the UN, OAU, France, and the United States as a violation of constitutional legality.
• The crisis caused severe economic damage, with the IMF and World Bank estimating that strikes cost the country up to US$14 million per day, erasing gains from the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative.
• The Dakar Agreement, signed on 18 April 2002, attempted to resolve the crisis through a recount of the first-round votes and the potential for a popular referendum if no winner emerged.
• The African Union (AU) initially refused to recognise Ravalomanana's government, barring Madagascar from the first AU summit in Durban on the grounds that power was taken unconstitutionally.
• Ratsiraka's position collapsed after he fled to France on 13 June 2002 and was further undermined by reports of mercenaries intercepted in Tanzania intended for his stronghold in Taomasina.
• The AU eventually recommended recognition of Ravalomanana's government following legislative elections on 15 December 2002, in which Ravalomanana and his allies won 132 of 160 seats.

APA

Cornwell, R. (2003). Madagascar: Stumbling at the first hurdle? Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PAPER68.PDF

Chicago

Cornwell, Richard. Madagascar: Stumbling at the first hurdle? Institute for Security Studies, 2003. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PAPER68.PDF.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cornwell |first1=Richard |title=Madagascar: Stumbling at the first hurdle? |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=April 2003 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PAPER68.PDF |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cornwell2003madagascar, author = {Cornwell, Richard}, title = {{Madagascar: Stumbling at the first hurdle?}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2003}, month = apr, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PAPER68.PDF}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }