Summary
This March 2011 report by the Institute for Security Studies provides early warning analysis and country-specific assessments for the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC). It focuses on the democratic transitions in Egypt and Niger, the persistent insecurity in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and an analysis of the 16th AU Assembly summit.
Key insights
- Following the resignation of Hosni Mubarak on 11 February 2011, Egypt faced significant uncertainty regarding whether the military, which assumed power, would facilitate genuine democratic change. Concerns included the adequacy of the six-month transitional period for legal reforms and the failure to meet demands such as the removal of emergency laws and the release of political prisoners.
- The Egyptian military is a dominant political and economic actor, estimated to control between 5% and 15% of the national economy through various untaxed commercial networks in industries such as construction, gasoline, and food production.
- In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the Eastern region remains volatile due to attacks by illegal armed groups—including the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), and the Mai Mai—and the Congolese army (FARDC). These conflicts are driven in part by the scramble for the region's vast mineral reserves.
- The DRC's 2011 presidential elections were viewed as a high-stakes event with the potential to trigger conflict. A constitutional amendment allowing the president to win by a simple majority was interpreted by the opposition as a tactic for incumbent Joseph Kabila to consolidate power.
- Niger's transition toward civilian rule following the 18 February 2010 military coup was marked by generally peaceful elections on 31 January 2011. However, the transition faced threats from Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), which expanded into urban areas including Niamey, and a reactivated Touareg insurgency.
- Niger is characterized as one of the world's poorest nations, with 82% of the population relying on animal herding and farming. The country has a history of instability, including three military interventions and five redraftings of its constitution.
- The 16th AU Assembly summit in Addis Ababa emphasized 'shared values' such as democratic governance and the rule of law to accelerate continental integration. It specifically called for greater synergy between peace and security matters and governance and democracy within the PSC.
- During the 16th AU Assembly, a diplomatic rift emerged between Nigeria and South Africa over the crisis in Côte d’Ivoire, as South Africa rejected proposals for the removal of Gbagbo.
Cite the original document
- APA
- Kent-Brown, D., Dersso, S. A., Lulie, H., Yoseph, E. Y., & Githaiga, N. (2011). PSC Report. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PSC20_March2011.pdf
- Chicago
- Kent-Brown, Duke, Solomon Ayele Dersso, Hallelujah Lulie, Eden Yohannes Yoseph, and Nyambura Githaiga. PSC Report. Institute for Security Studies, 2011. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PSC20_March2011.pdf.
- Wikipedia
- {{cite report |last1=Kent-Brown |first1=Duke |last2=Dersso |first2=Solomon Ayele |last3=Lulie |first3=Hallelujah |last4=Yoseph |first4=Eden Yohannes |last5=Githaiga |first5=Nyambura |title=PSC Report |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=March 2011 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PSC20_March2011.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}
- BibTeX
- @techreport{kentbrown2011psc, author = {Kent-Brown, Duke and Dersso, Solomon Ayele and Lulie, Hallelujah and Yoseph, Eden Yohannes and Githaiga, Nyambura}, title = {{PSC Report}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2011}, month = mar, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PSC20_March2011.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }
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