Early Warning Issues for August

This August 2010 report by the Institute for Security Studies provides early warning analysis on several African security issues. It focuses on Kenya's constitutional referendum, the potential for water-related conflict in the Nile Basin, the transition to democracy in Guinea, and the results of the presidential election in Somaliland. Additionally, it reviews the annual consultative meeting between the African Union Peace and Security Council (PSC) and the UN Security Council (UNSC), the operationalisation of civil society engagement via the Livingstone Formula, and the outcomes of the International Criminal Court (ICC) Review Conference in Kampala.

• Kenya held a constitutional referendum on 4 August 2010 to adopt a new constitution designed to address political and economic mismanagement, a culture of impunity, and the 'imperial presidency' that contributed to the 2007/2008 post-election violence. The proposed constitution introduces a bi-cameral parliament, limits presidential power, ensures judicial independence, and proposes the devolution of power through county governments.
• The Kenyan constitutional process faced significant opposition from the 'No' camp, led by Higher Education Minister William Ruto and supported by church leaders. Primary points of contention included the legalisation of abortion in cases where the mother's life is endangered and the recognition of Kadhi courts for Muslim citizens.
• Tensions have risen in the Nile Basin following the May 2010 signing of the Nile Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) by five upstream riparian states (Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda). Egypt and Sudan have declined to sign, creating a rift between upper and lower riparian blocks over water security and existing 1929 and 1959 agreements.
• By 2025, water scarcity is predicted to affect several Nile Basin countries, including Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, and Eritrea, while Uganda and Tanzania will face water stress. This is exacerbated by climate change, deforestation, and soil erosion.
• Guinea's June 2010 presidential elections were marked by ethnic division and allegations of fraud, leading to clashes between security forces and demonstrators in Conakry on 5 July 2010. The process highlighted deep ethnic rivalries, with candidates receiving support primarily from their own ethnic groups and regions.
• Somaliland successfully conducted presidential elections on 26 June 2010, resulting in a victory for Ahmed Mohamed Silanyo with 49.59% of the vote. The process was noted for the peaceful concession of defeat by incumbent President Dahir Riyale Kahin and the neutrality of the military establishment.
• The AU PSC and UN Security Council held their 2010 annual consultative meeting on 9 July in New York. While they agreed on annual meeting schedules and cooperation on the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), the UNSC remains reluctant to formalise the relationship or grant the AU a co-equal role in decisions on African security issues.
• The 'Livingstone Formula' was adopted in December 2008 to operationalise the participation of civil society organisations (CSOs) in the AU PSC. However, implementation is hindered by an institutional culture of inter-governmentalism and high eligibility thresholds for ECOSOCC membership, specifically the requirement that 50% of resources be derived from member contributions.
• The ICC Review Conference in Kampala (May-June 2010) reached a complex compromise on the 'crime of aggression,' which will not be exercisable until at least 1 January 2017 and requires ratification by 30 states parties. The conference also saw the presentation of over 100 pledges from nearly 40 states and international organisations regarding the Trust Fund for Victims and witness relocation.

APA

Kent-Brown, D., Dersso, S., Lulie, H., Yoseph, E. Y., Murithi, T., Mesfin, B., Seide, W. M., & Louw, A. (2010). Early Warning Issues for August. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/No13Aug2010.pdf

Chicago

Kent-Brown, Duke, Solomon Dersso, Hallelujah Lulie, Eden Yohannes Yoseph, Tim Murithi, Berouk Mesfin, Wondwosen Michago Seide, and Antoinette Louw. Early Warning Issues for August. Institute for Security Studies, 2010. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/No13Aug2010.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kent-Brown |first1=Duke |last2=Dersso |first2=Solomon |last3=Lulie |first3=Hallelujah |last4=Yoseph |first4=Eden Yohannes |last5=Murithi |first5=Tim |last6=Mesfin |first6=Berouk |last7=Seide |first7=Wondwosen Michago |last8=Louw |first8=Antoinette |title=Early Warning Issues for August |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=August 2010 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/No13Aug2010.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kentbrown2010early, author = {Kent-Brown, Duke and Dersso, Solomon and Lulie, Hallelujah and Yoseph, Eden Yohannes and Murithi, Tim and Mesfin, Berouk and Seide, Wondwosen Michago and Louw, Antoinette}, title = {{Early Warning Issues for August}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2010}, month = aug, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/No13Aug2010.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }