Challenges to a durable peace in Burundi

This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the risks surrounding Burundi's scheduled November 1, 2004, elections. The author argues that the country is caught between the contradictory demands of peace-making and electioneering, with significant technical, security, and political preconditions remaining unmet. The document highlights a dangerous trend toward 'win-lose' politics and the growing influence of militarized political power, warning that without a genuine national consensus and inclusive reforms, the elections could trigger a return to the ethnic violence seen after the 1993 elections.

• The upcoming elections on 1 November 2004 risk repeating the crisis of 1993, where the assassination of President Melchior Ndadaye by the Burundian Army led to ethnic slaughter. There is a dangerous level of polarization regarding the election date, and the author warns that any contestation of the outcome could destroy the fragile belief in the peace process.
• The peace process remains incomplete due to several factors: the perception that it only benefits a small political elite, the failure to implement all cease-fire accords, and the exclusion of the Palipehutu-FNL. The author asserts that there is no military solution to the conflict with the FNL and that the Arusha Peace Accord is still a highly contested document.
• There is a fundamental tension between the requirements of peace-making—which emphasizes compromise and inclusivity—and those of electioneering, which drive competition, exclusion, and demonization. This contradiction creates confusion for political leaders and suggests the process may be fraying.
• Numerous technical and security preconditions for a free and fair election remain unfulfilled. These include the need for a new post-transitional constitution and referendum, a new electoral law, a national population census, the return of refugees, and the disarmament of armed movements. Security is particularly unstable in Bujumbura Rural Province and its environs due to ongoing war.
• A 'win-lose' mentality is resurfacing, with parties supporting or opposing the November 1 date based on their perceived chance of victory. This may lead to a contest between 'Arusha parties' (like FRODEBU and UPRONA) and 'non-Arusha parties,' potentially replacing one set of excluded groups with another.
• The CNDD-FDD is challenging the ethnic compromises of the Arusha Accord by suggesting that minority quotas and references to ethnicity be removed from the new Constitution. This is viewed as a move toward a majoritarian-style system, which is expected to meet massive resistance from the Tutsi community who see quotas as a pre-condition for peace.
• Political power is becoming increasingly militarized through an alliance of convenience between the Burundian Army and the FDD. Both groups appear to want to remain armed to maintain influence during and after the elections. Consequently, disarmament and demobilization have stalled, with FDD fighters remaining armed in informal assembly areas.

APA

van Eck, J. (2004). Challenges to a durable peace in Burundi. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/BURUNDIAPR04.PDF

Chicago

van Eck, Jan. Challenges to a durable peace in Burundi. Institute for Security Studies, 2004. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/BURUNDIAPR04.PDF.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=van Eck |first1=Jan |title=Challenges to a durable peace in Burundi |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 April 2004 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/BURUNDIAPR04.PDF |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{vaneck2004challenges, author = {van Eck, Jan}, title = {{Challenges to a durable peace in Burundi}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2004}, month = apr, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/BURUNDIAPR04.PDF}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }