Challenges to a durable peace in Burundi

The briefing examines the risks associated with Burundi's planned November 2004 elections, highlighting the tension between peace-making and electioneering. It identifies critical unmet pre-conditions, including the lack of a new constitution and the continued presence of armed movements. The author warns that a 'win-lose' mentality and the militarization of political power—specifically the alliance between the Burundian Army and the FDD—threaten the ethnic compromises of the Arusha Peace Accord and could lead to a return to exclusionary politics.

• The 1993 democratic elections in Burundi are viewed as a cautionary tale, as the assassination of President Melchior Ndadaye by the army led to ethnic slaughter involving tens of thousands of deaths. Observers believe those elections were held too soon due to international pressure.
• The peace process remains incomplete, with the Palipehutu-FNL (the second largest armed movement) still outside the process. Despite international initiatives, including one by the Netherlands, a political solution is unlikely before the November elections because some parties prefer a military solution to eliminate a political competitor.
• There is a fundamental conflict between the requirements of peace-making (compromise and inclusivity) and electioneering (competition and exclusion). This contradiction is creating confusion and a perception that the peace process is fraying.
• Numerous technical and legal pre-conditions for the 1 November election remain unfulfilled, including the need for a new post-transitional constitution, a national referendum, a new electoral law, a population census, and the disarmament of armed movements.
• The CNDD-FDD is challenging the ethnic minority quotas established by the Arusha Peace Accord, advocating for a more majoritarian-style constitution. This is met with resistance from the Tutsi community, who view these quotas as essential protections.
• A surprising alliance has formed between the Burundian Army and the FDD, driven by a common enemy in the FNL and a mutual distrust of the political class. This has led to a 'military stand-off' where both groups remain armed and operational, undermining the Disarmament, Demobilisation and Re-integration process.

APA

van Eck, J. (2004). Challenges to a durable peace in Burundi. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/BURUNDIAPR04.PDF

Chicago

van Eck, Jan. Challenges to a durable peace in Burundi. Institute for Security Studies, 2004. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/BURUNDIAPR04.PDF.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=van Eck |first1=Jan |title=Challenges to a durable peace in Burundi |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 April 2004 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/BURUNDIAPR04.PDF |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{vaneck2004challenges, author = {van Eck, Jan}, title = {{Challenges to a durable peace in Burundi}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2004}, month = apr, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/BURUNDIAPR04.PDF}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }