African urban futures

This research paper examines the rapid pace of urbanisation in Africa, forecasting population trends and identifying the structural challenges that hinder sustainable urban development. It focuses on the emergence of megacities and the disconnect between urban growth and economic structural transformation.

• Africa is experiencing an unprecedented speed of urbanisation; by 2035, half of the continent's population is expected to live in towns and cities, and by 2050, this figure could reach 1.4 billion people, or 58% of the population.
• Natural population growth—where births exceed deaths—is the primary driver of Africa's urban expansion, accounting for at least 60% of the growth on average.
• Unlike the industrialised West, Africa's urbanisation is largely a demographic phenomenon rather than a result of economic development, often occurring in contexts of low growth and slow structural transformation.
• Africa currently has three megacities (cities with over 10 million inhabitants): Cairo, Lagos, and Kinshasa. By 2030, Dar es Salaam, Johannesburg, and Luanda are also expected to surpass the 10 million threshold.
• Lagos is projected to grow at an absolute rate unprecedented in history, potentially adding over 700,000 people annually between 2014 and 2030.
• Urban poverty in Africa is significantly higher than in other developing regions, with over 55% of the sub-Saharan African urban population living in slums.
• There is a significant disparity in basic service access; while Cairo has almost universal sanitation, cities like Dar es Salaam have only 42% of residents with access to improved sanitation.
• Urban violence in Africa is not directly caused by population growth but is driven by unplanned urban spaces, economic stagnation, poor governance, and the exclusion of youth from employment and political participation.
• The Gauteng province in South Africa recorded the highest number of riots and protests among the studied city-regions, with over 1,900 incidents between January 1997 and September 2016.
• African urban governance has historically been ad hoc and biased toward the wealthy, often neglecting the informal housing and job markets where the majority of residents live and work.

APA

Bello-Schünemann, J., & Aucoin, C. (2016). African urban futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/af20.pdf

Chicago

Bello-Schünemann, Julia, and Ciara Aucoin. African urban futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2016. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/af20.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bello-Schünemann |first1=Julia |last2=Aucoin |first2=Ciara |title=African urban futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=November 2016 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/af20.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{belloschnemann2016african, author = {Bello-Schünemann, Julia and Aucoin, Ciara}, title = {{African urban futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2016}, month = nov, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/af20.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }