African urban futures

Africa is experiencing unprecedented urban growth, with its urban population expected to reach 1.4 billion by 2050. While this transition offers economic potential, it is occurring alongside slow structural transformation and pervasive poverty. The paper highlights the rise of megacities—such as Lagos, Cairo, and Kinshasa—and warns that without integrated urban planning and inclusive economic growth, cities will face increasing slum proliferation and urban violence.

• Africa is experiencing an unprecedented urban population boom; by 2035, half of the continent's population is expected to live in cities and towns, potentially reaching 1.4 billion people (58% of the population) by 2050.
• Natural population growth—where births exceed deaths—is the primary driver of African urbanisation, accounting for at least 60% of the growth, while rural-to-urban migration typically accounts for less than one-third.
• Urbanisation in Africa is largely a demographic phenomenon rather than an economic one, often occurring without corresponding industrialisation or structural transformation, leading to 'urbanisation without growth'.
• The number of African megacities (cities with over 10 million inhabitants) is projected to grow from three in 2014 to 14 by 2050. Cairo, Lagos, and Kinshasa are current megacities, with Johannesburg, Luanda, and Dar es Salaam expected to join them by 2030.
• African megacities dominate their national economies; for example, Cairo contributed 34% to Egypt's economy in 2014, and Lagos state's economy accounted for 20-25% of Nigeria's GDP in 2015.
• Urban poverty in Africa is significantly higher than in other developing regions, with over 55% of the sub-Saharan African urban population living in slums, which often act as 'poverty traps' rather than temporary housing.
• Urban violence is driven by structural issues including economic stagnation, poor governance, and the exclusion of youth from employment and political participation, rather than by population growth alone.
• Infrastructure deficits are critical; in Nigeria and Tanzania, the number of urban residents lacking electricity is expected to increase by 2030 and 2040 respectively because population growth is outpacing grid expansion.

APA

Bello-Schünemann, J., & Aucoin, C. (2016). African urban futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/af20.pdf

Chicago

Bello-Schünemann, Julia, and Ciara Aucoin. African urban futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2016. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/af20.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bello-Schünemann |first1=Julia |last2=Aucoin |first2=Ciara |title=African urban futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=November 2016 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/af20.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{belloschnemann2016african, author = {Bello-Schünemann, Julia and Aucoin, Ciara}, title = {{African urban futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2016}, month = nov, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/af20.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }