Lake Chad Basin’s perfect storm

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies examines the 'perfect storm' of climate change, violent extremism, and forced displacement in the Lake Chad Basin (LCB). It argues that climate change acts as a 'threat multiplier,' exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and providing fertile ground for insurgent groups like Boko Haram and ISWAP to recruit and extort populations. The document highlights a shift from the narrative of a shrinking lake to one of extreme weather variability, specifically catastrophic flooding, and provides institutional recommendations for the Lake Chad Basin Commission and national governments to enhance regional resilience.

• The Lake Chad Basin is warming 1.5 times faster than the global average, which is expected to lead to a 30% increase in precipitation by 2050. While the lake's surface water has been stable or growing for two decades, the region is suffering from increased rainfall variability and extreme weather events. Rising heat is projected to damage soil quality and reduce water supplies by up to 10%.
• Catastrophic flooding has become a primary driver of crisis in the region. In 2022, floods displaced over 1.5 million people. A subsequent event in 2024 was even more severe, killing at least 1,527 people and affecting 7.5 million across 13 countries, with Chad and Nigeria being the most impacted. In Nigeria's Borno State, the breach of the Alau Dam submerged half of Maiduguri and displaced 70% of its 870,000 residents.
• Climate change and violent extremism are mutually reinforcing. Environmental degradation and resource shortages erode livelihoods, creating 'fertile ground' for recruitment by terrorist groups. Insurgents exploit this by positioning themselves as arbitrators of land and resource disputes where state governance is ineffective.
• Boko Haram and ISWAP weaponize environmental and economic vulnerabilities to fund their operations and maintain control. This includes extracting taxes on trade, farming, and fishing, and engaging in large-scale cattle rustling. ISWAP is estimated to gain US$191 million annually from taxes, an amount roughly 10 times higher than the Borno State government's revenue.
• Forced displacement in the LCB is increasingly driven by natural disasters rather than conflict, though the two factors often compound. As of June 2025, there were 3.2 million forcibly displaced people in the region. Nigeria is the most affected country with 2.1 million internally displaced persons (IDPs).
• Climate-induced mobility is a significant adaptation strategy, but it often leads to urban poverty and tension. By 2050, West Africa could see up to 54.5 million internal climate migrants. Many migrants end up in urban slums in cities like Maiduguri, Bol, Bagassola, Maroua, and Diffa, where they face social marginalization and competition over limited resources.
• Weak governance across riparian states limits the ability to maintain infrastructure, protect ecosystems, and implement long-term planning. The document recommends that the Lake Chad Basin Commission establish a climate security taskforce for hotspot mapping and flood response, and that national authorities adopt temporary tenure instruments for flood-affected households.

APA

Mbiyozo, A.-N., & Hoinathy, R. (2026). Lake Chad Basin’s perfect storm. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1776846569766-20260422-LCBClimate-PB214-PDF.pdf

Chicago

Mbiyozo, Aimée-Noël, and Remadji Hoinathy. Lake Chad Basin’s perfect storm. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1776846569766-20260422-LCBClimate-PB214-PDF.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{mbiyozo2026lake, author = {Mbiyozo, Aimée-Noël and Hoinathy, Remadji}, title = {{Lake Chad Basin’s perfect storm}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1776846569766-20260422-LCBClimate-PB214-PDF.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }