Prospects for the G5 Sahel countries to 2040

This report analyses the development trajectories of the G5 Sahel countries (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger) to 2040 using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system. It identifies critical challenges in agriculture, demographics, infrastructure, and governance, while comparing a 'Current Path' forecast against a positive 'Desert Flower' scenario and a dystopian 'Sahelistan' scenario.

• The G5 Sahel region is projected to experience significant population growth, with the total population expected to increase from 81 million in 2018 to 152 million by 2040.
• Climate change is severely impacting the region, with the Sahel having recorded the most substantial and sustained decline in rainfall globally during the 1980s. Future drying is expected to exceed 1980s levels by the mid-21st century, threatening rain-fed agriculture and grazing.
• Agriculture is the primary livelihood for the majority of the population but suffers from low productivity. In the 'Current Path' forecast, agricultural yields for Chad, Mauritania, and Niger are expected to remain stagnant or decline, and a 2°C temperature increase could reduce millet and sorghum yields by up to 25% by 2080.
• The region faces a severe infrastructure deficit, particularly in water, sanitation, and electricity. In 2018, only about 21% of the population had access to improved sanitation and 69% had access to safe water. Electricity access was 22% in 2018 and is projected to remain below 50% by 2040.
• Human development indicators are among the lowest globally, with Chad having the lowest life expectancy in the world in 2018 at 52 years. Niger has the world's highest fertility rate at seven births per woman.
• Governance is a major drag on growth, particularly in Chad. Burkina Faso is consistently ranked as the most capable and best governed of the G5 Sahel countries.
• Violent extremism and organised crime are eroding the rule of law and state structures, particularly in Mali and Niger, and are often intertwined with governance challenges.
• The 'Desert Flower' scenario, which combines positive interventions in agriculture, demographics, education, governance, and infrastructure, could reduce the number of people living in extreme poverty by more than 29 million by 2040 compared to the Current Path.
• The 'Sahelistan' scenario simulates a regional drought in 2021-2022 and a deterioration in security, leading to a future where incomes in G5 Sahel countries are less than €2,174 in 2040, which is lower than Senegal's 2017 income level.
• Remittances and foreign aid remain critical revenue sources. Mali is one of sub-Saharan Africa's largest remittance recipients, receiving approximately €835 million in 2017 (6.9% of its GDP). However, remittance transfer costs in sub-Saharan Africa are the highest globally at 9.4%.

APA

Kwasi, S., Cilliers, J., Donnenfeld, Z., Welborn, L., & Maïga, I. (2019). Prospects for the G5 Sahel countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/ISS-Prospects-for-the-G5-Sahel-countries-to-2040.pdf

Chicago

Kwasi, Stellah, Jakkie Cilliers, Zachary Donnenfeld, Lily Welborn, and Ibrahim Maïga. Prospects for the G5 Sahel countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2019. https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/ISS-Prospects-for-the-G5-Sahel-countries-to-2040.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kwasi |first1=Stellah |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |last3=Donnenfeld |first3=Zachary |last4=Welborn |first4=Lily |last5=Maïga |first5=Ibrahim |title=Prospects for the G5 Sahel countries to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=November 2019 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/ISS-Prospects-for-the-G5-Sahel-countries-to-2040.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kwasi2019prospects, author = {Kwasi, Stellah and Cilliers, Jakkie and Donnenfeld, Zachary and Welborn, Lily and Maïga, Ibrahim}, title = {{Prospects for the G5 Sahel countries to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2019}, month = nov, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/export/sites/afi/reports/pdfs/ISS-Prospects-for-the-G5-Sahel-countries-to-2040.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }