ISS African Futures

This report provides development forecasts for the Central African Republic (CAR) up to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' (CP) baseline with various sectoral improvement scenarios and a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario. The report highlights CAR's status as one of the world's least developed countries, characterized by extreme poverty, low life expectancy, and high levels of violent conflict. While the CP predicts modest economic growth, the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario suggests that intersectoral policy pushes could significantly increase GDP per capita and drastically reduce extreme poverty.

• The Central African Republic is among the world's least developed countries, ranking last on the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) in 2019. In that year, 73.9% of the population lived in extreme poverty, and life expectancy was the lowest globally at 51.22 years, largely due to a high communicable-disease burden.
• Under the Current Path forecast, the population is projected to grow by approximately 75%, reaching 8.4 million people by 2043. The country is expected to remain predominantly rural, with the rural population share increasing from 60.3% in 2019 to 62.4% in 2043.
• The Current Path forecast predicts that GDP (MER) will nearly triple from US$2.2 billion to US$6.4 billion by 2043, with GDP per capita rising from US$843 in 2019 to US$1,516. However, this remains significantly below the projected average for low-income peer countries in Africa, which is US$3,790.
• Agricultural productivity is a critical area for improvement; on the Current Path, the gap between production and demand is expected to grow from 0.2 million metric tons in 2019 to 2.6 million metric tons by 2043. An 'Agriculture scenario' could increase yields from 1.5 metric tons per hectare in 2019 to 3.5 metric tons by 2043 and reduce net agricultural imports from 39.3% (Current Path) to 10.5% of demand.
• Energy access is a major challenge, with only 26.2% of the population having electricity in 2019. While the Current Path forecasts 58.1% access by 2043, a 'Leapfrogging scenario' could push this to 62.8%, and an 'Infrastructure scenario' could reach 70%.
• The 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral improvements, predicts a significant economic boost, with GDP per capita potentially reaching US$2,702 by 2043 (70% higher than the Current Path). This scenario could reduce the extreme poverty rate to 5.1% (1.79 million people), compared to 68.3% (3.56 million people) on the Current Path.
• Carbon emissions are forecast to rise significantly. On the Current Path, emissions will increase ninefold from 0.1 million tons in 2019 to 0.9 million tons by 2043. In the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, emissions are projected to reach 1.2 million tons by 2043 due to higher economic growth.
• The 'Stability scenario' could improve the governance security index from 0.58 in 2019 to 0.79 by 2043 and reduce the extreme poverty rate to 65.9% by 2043, compared to 68.3% on the Current Path.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). ISS African Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CF

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. ISS African Futures. n.d. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CF.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=ISS African Futures |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CF |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndiss, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{ISS African Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=CF}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }