Recent Progress in Applying Participatory Scenario Development in Climate Change Adaptation in Developing Countries Part II

The research demonstrates that participatory scenario development serves as a critical tool for capacity-building and awareness-raising in developing countries, complementing traditional vulnerability assessments by integrating socioeconomic trends with climate projections. Through case studies in Ghana, Honduras, and Tajikistan, the authors show that PSD can validate and complement donor-driven initiatives and national strategies. The paper emphasizes the need to combine qualitative stakeholder knowledge with quantitative data—such as downscaled global scenarios and crop modeling—to avoid 'myopic traps' and ensure adaptation options are compatible with broader development goals like poverty reduction and food security.

• Participatory scenario development (PSD) serves two primary roles in adaptation planning within developing countries: acting as a tool for capacity building and awareness raising, and serving to validate or complete actions within existing donor-driven initiatives.
• In the case studies, PSD helped stakeholders create explicit links between climate change and broader development goals, such as agroforestry and food security in Honduras, land tenure and market access in Ghana, and energy sources and migration in Tajikistan.
• To prevent 'myopic traps'—where scenarios are based solely on limited stakeholder knowledge—the process must integrate quantitative boundary conditions from global and regional scenarios regarding population, urbanization, and resource demands.
• The research highlights a significant gap in available data for developing countries, noting that climate information is often limited to basic variables like temperature and precipitation, lacking the finer spatial resolution (10–50 square kilometres) needed for specific livelihood impacts.
• Effective PSD requires a structured, multi-scale approach, including 'training of trainers' for local facilitators and workshops at different governance levels to capture varying perspectives and cross-scale linkages.
• The case studies demonstrate that PSD can be used to refine and validate technical assessments, such as the computable general equilibrium model (CGEM) for adaptation costs in Ghana and the Strategic Program for Climate Resilience (SPCR) in Tajikistan.

APA

Bizikova, L., Pinter, L., & Tubiello, F. N. (2014). Recent Progress in Applying Participatory Scenario Development in Climate Change Adaptation in Developing Countries Part II. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/participatory-scenario-development-climate-change-adaptation-part-ii.pdf

Chicago

Bizikova, Livia, Laszlo Pinter, and Francesco N. Tubiello. Recent Progress in Applying Participatory Scenario Development in Climate Change Adaptation in Developing Countries Part II. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2014. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/participatory-scenario-development-climate-change-adaptation-part-ii.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bizikova |first1=Livia |last2=Pinter |first2=Laszlo |last3=Tubiello |first3=Francesco N. |title=Recent Progress in Applying Participatory Scenario Development in Climate Change Adaptation in Developing Countries Part II |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=March 2014 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/participatory-scenario-development-climate-change-adaptation-part-ii.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bizikova2014recent, author = {Bizikova, Livia and Pinter, Laszlo and Tubiello, Francesco N.}, title = {{Recent Progress in Applying Participatory Scenario Development in Climate Change Adaptation in Developing Countries Part II}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2014}, month = mar, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/participatory-scenario-development-climate-change-adaptation-part-ii.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }