Agriculture: Future Scenarios for Southern Africa

The document examines the intersection of global trade policy and food security in Southern Africa, arguing that reducing dependence on First World agricultural subsidies and improving domestic production capabilities are critical for long-term stability. It analyzes the potential impacts of the WTO Doha Round, specifically regarding preference erosion for African exports and the disciplining of export restrictions. The author highlights the risks posed by biofuel production and the limitations of current trade models in predicting gains for Africa, suggesting that a 'no deal' outcome at the WTO may not be entirely disadvantageous.

• Africa's primary interests in the global agricultural trade agenda center on market access, specifically regarding exemptions from reduction commitments and the erosion of preferences.
• The document argues that maintaining domestic production is a more effective way to ensure food security than relying on imports, as local production can dampen domestic market prices during global commodity spikes.
• First World agricultural subsidies are identified as a barrier to African productivity; for example, U.S. maize farmers are described as being kept solvent only through federal subsidies, as they would otherwise produce at a loss.
• The adoption of genetically modified (GM) technologies in Southern Africa is hindered by the region's trade reliance on the European Union, which is averse to GM products.
• Biofuel production in OECD countries is criticized for increasing world crop prices with limited benefits for greenhouse gas reduction or energy security.
• There is a growing perception that the Doha Round may offer minimal gains for Africa, potentially making a 'no deal' outcome acceptable to African politicians.
• The document identifies a specific risk of preference erosion for certain products and countries, most notably bananas and sugar in the EU market, affecting countries such as Swaziland.
• Short-term policy recommendations for addressing the food crisis include providing safety nets and social protection for vulnerable consumers and enhancing supply responses from smallholder farmers.

APA

Zunckel, H. E. (2009). Agriculture: Future Scenarios for Southern Africa. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/ag_scenarios_south_africa_sec_trade.pdf

Chicago

Zunckel, Hilton E. Agriculture: Future Scenarios for Southern Africa. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2009. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/ag_scenarios_south_africa_sec_trade.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Zunckel |first1=Hilton E. |title=Agriculture: Future Scenarios for Southern Africa |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=2009 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/ag_scenarios_south_africa_sec_trade.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{zunckel2009agriculture, author = {Zunckel, Hilton E.}, title = {{Agriculture: Future Scenarios for Southern Africa}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2009}, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/ag_scenarios_south_africa_sec_trade.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }