A Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) Assessment of Bus Fleet Electrification in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

The assessment finds that electrifying Ulaanbaatar's bus fleet is economically viable, with a discounted net benefit of MNT 93,355 million (USD 26.3 million) and a benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR) of 1.09 over 25 years. The primary economic drivers are avoided fuel costs and lower maintenance requirements. These benefits increase substantially if electrification is paired with a modal shift from private vehicles to public transport; a 10% shift would raise the BCR to 3.63 and net benefits to USD 774.8 million. The analysis emphasizes that traditional valuations often underestimate such projects by ignoring environmental and social externalities like air and noise pollution.

• Full electrification of the bus fleet in Ulaanbaatar, without a modal shift, is projected to yield a cumulative discounted net benefit of MNT 93,355 million (USD 26.3 million) and an integrated benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR) of 1.09 over a 25-year period from 2025 to 2050.
• The most significant economic impact of the transition is the reduction in fuel expenses, followed by lower maintenance costs for electric buses compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
• Integrating a modal shift from private vehicles to public buses significantly amplifies the project's value. A 5% shift increases net benefits to USD 400.5 million (BCR 2.36), and a 10% shift increases them to USD 774.8 million (BCR 3.63).
• The project involves high initial capital expenditures for electric buses and charging infrastructure, totaling MNT 709,270 million (USD 199.6 million) by 2050, but these are outweighed by the combined added benefits and avoided costs.
• Beyond fuel and maintenance, the electrification provides quantified benefits through the avoidance of CO2 emissions (MNT 67,364 million), noise pollution (MNT 37,669 million), and air pollution (MNT 32,539 million).
• Traditional financial assessments that only consider fuel and maintenance costs would result in a BCR of 0.94, making the project appear less attractive than it is when social and environmental externalities are included.

APA

Kapetanakis, M. (2026). A Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) Assessment of Bus Fleet Electrification in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2026-05/savi-bus-fleet-electrification-mongolia-summary.pdf

Chicago

Kapetanakis, Michail. A Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) Assessment of Bus Fleet Electrification in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2026. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2026-05/savi-bus-fleet-electrification-mongolia-summary.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kapetanakis |first1=Michail |title=A Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) Assessment of Bus Fleet Electrification in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=May 2026 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2026-05/savi-bus-fleet-electrification-mongolia-summary.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kapetanakis2026sustainable, author = {Kapetanakis, Michail}, title = {{A Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) Assessment of Bus Fleet Electrification in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2026-05/savi-bus-fleet-electrification-mongolia-summary.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }